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original title:[收盘评论]August 4th SHFE market: Pulp futures rose 5% after breaking the 6,300 yuan mark Source: Wenhua Finance
On Wednesday, pulp futures surged 5.01% to 6,366 yuan/ton. In the downstream raw paper market, price increase letters are frequently issued, and the rebound in the price of white cardboard still supports the pulp price. At the same time, with the arrival of the Q3 industry peak season, the downstream boom has rebounded. The operating rate of downstream pulp mills is expected to increase, and the market’s demand for pulp is expected to increase. In addition, the increase in external quotations has also provided a rebound momentum for domestic pulp futures.
Today’s domestic pulp spot quotations are adjusted according to the future price. The price of softwood pulp in Shandong is increased by 200 yuan/ton from the previous period, Silver Star is 6350 yuan/ton, Kailip is 6450 yuan/ton, Continental is 6350 yuan/ton, and Lion is 6350 yuan/ton. , Southern Pine 6050 yuan/ton. The coniferous pulp market in Zhejiang and Shanghai is generally traded, and traders’ quotations are adjusted following the futures board. The current quoted prices including tax are 6350 yuan/ton for Silver Star, 6450 yuan/ton for Kailip, 6350 yuan/ton for Moon, 6350 yuan/ton for Continental Tons, real bills and talks.
Entering the third quarter, the paper packaging industry will usher in the industry’s historical “Golden Nine Silver Ten” stage. Generally speaking, market demand and the number of orders will increase significantly. With the advent of August, the price of whiteboard and corrugated paper will rise first, 50- Although the increase of 100 yuan/ton was relatively small, it still caused a great response from the downstream packaging industry. On August 1, many paper companies including Cotai Group App (China), Bohui Paper and other paper companies issued price increase letters again, announcing that they would increase product prices ranging from 50-200 yuan/ton from August 1. The paper industry announced an opportunity to shut down.
As upstream paper companies announced price increases, cardboard factories in some areas have also begun to issue price increase letters following the increase. The price of cardboard in Anhui, Shandong, Hubei, Henan, Jiangsu and other places increased by about 3%. The price of national waste has also rebounded significantly, with the highest increase of 50/ton today, and the waste paper index 2245.24, an increase of 0.12% from the previous month.
At the same time, the recurrence of the domestic epidemic also brought volatility to the paper price trend in August. On the one hand, the recurrence of the epidemic will lead to an increase in the production and transportation costs of the paper bag industry; on the other hand, the recurrence of the epidemic may affect the consumer market, thereby affecting the end demand of the paper bag industry.
In addition, from the perspective of the import situation of corrugated paper in the first half of the year, the cumulative import volume of corrugated paper from January to May 2021 is about 1,306,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.18%. It is not difficult to predict that in the next period of time, imported paper will still be restricted by factors such as sea freight price increases and tight shipping schedules in the second half of the year, which will further weaken the impact of imported paper on domestic paper prices and help ease the pressure of domestic paper price competition. .
Regarding the future trend, Guotai Junan Futures believes that downstream white cardboard and household paper issued price increases to stimulate shipments, which will provide certain support to the pulp market. Short-term pulp market transactions will still be relatively rigid, and spot offers for standard products fluctuate slightly with pulp futures. Under the influence of bullish conditions, stabilization and volatility are expected to be strong.
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Editor in charge: Chen Xiulong
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