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On October 24, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced the economic data for September and the first three quarters of 2022. In the past, it was usually announced on the 15th, but this time it was delayed by 9 days due to well-known reasons.
Economic stabilization policies are effective
GDP growth was better than expected.In the third quarter, GDP increased by 3.9% year-on-year and 3.9% month-on-month. In the first three quarters, GDP grew by 3.0% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the first half of the year. If there is no nationwide reversal of the epidemic, it is expected that the GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be better than that in the third quarter. Although the annual GDP growth cannot achieve the predetermined 5.5%, it is expected to be close to or even reach the psychological line of 4%.
Industrial production rebounded significantly.In the third quarter, the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year, up 4.1 percentage points from the previous month; the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries increased by 6.7% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points higher than that of the national industries above designated size; the automobile manufacturing industry became the biggest bright spot. The output changed from a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% in the second quarter to an increase of 31.4%, of which the output of new energy vehicles doubled, with a year-on-year increase of 113.1%, an acceleration of 20.8 percentage points from the previous month. In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 50.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; the enterprise production and business activity expectations index was 53.4%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month.
CPI and PPI increases are controllable.In September, the CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the CPI rose by 2.0% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, was stable, up only 0.9% year-on-year, which created conditions for further easing of monetary policy if necessary. In the first three quarters, the PPI rose by 5.9%, 1.8 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year; the price of production materials rose by 7.4%, 2.5 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year, which eased the cost pressure of mid-stream and downstream enterprises.
The “troika” performed steadily.In the first three quarters, in terms of consumption, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 41.3%, driving GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points; the per capita consumption expenditure of national residents increased by 3.5% in nominal terms compared with the same period last year, and the actual growth rate after deducting price factors was 1.5%. In the first half of the year, it increased by 1.0 and 0.7 percentage points. In terms of investment, the contribution rate of total capital formation to economic growth was 26.7%, driving GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points; high-tech industry investment increased by 20.2% year-on-year, which was 14.3 percentage points higher than the national fixed asset investment growth rate; manufacturing investment, infrastructure Investment increased by 10.1% and 8.6% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate was 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points higher than that in January-August respectively. In terms of exports, net exports of goods and services contributed 32.0% to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 1.0 percentage points. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, in the first three quarters, the cumulative export value was 2,698.59 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%; the cumulative import value was 2,053.44 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%; the cumulative surplus was 645.15 billion US dollars.
The policy of stabilizing the economy is strong and rapid.On October 17, the National Development and Reform Commission, in response to a question from Reuters at the press conference of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, confirmed that “my country’s economy fluctuates from month to month” in March, April and July. This indirectly explains the main reason why a package of policies to stabilize the economy was introduced in batches at the State Council executive meeting on May 23 and August 24. According to data from the People’s Bank of China, at the end of September, the balance of M2 increased by 12.1% year-on-year, the balance of M1 increased by 6.4% year-on-year, and the balance of M0 increased by 13.6% year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the net cash investment was 784.7 billion yuan; RMB loans increased by 18.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year; social financing scale was 27.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.01 trillion yuan year-on-year, of which RMB loans issued to the real economy An increase of 17.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.06 trillion yuan.
There are still hidden dangers
Market confidence is lacking.On Monday, October 24th, the first trading day after the closing of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the three major Chinese A-share indexes all closed down more than 2%, of which the Shanghai Index fell 2.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.05%, and the Genesis Index fell 2.43%. , the Shanghai index fell below 3,000 points, and more than 3,800 stocks in the two markets fell; the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 6.36%, the largest decline since 2008; the Chinese concept stocks in the United States generally plummeted, of which Pinduoduo fell 33.47%. At the close on October 25, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.51%, the Genesis Index fell 0.95%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 0.1%. According to data from the People’s Bank of China, in the first three quarters, RMB deposits increased by 22.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.16 trillion yuan year-on-year; in September, RMB deposits increased by 2.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 303 billion yuan year-on-year.
The real estate sector continues to be weak.Looking at GDP in the third quarter by industry, the only negative growth was the real estate industry, which decreased by 4.2% year-on-year; the two industries with negative growth in the first three quarters were the accommodation and catering industry and the real estate industry, which decreased by 0.7% and 4.4% year-on-year respectively. In the first three quarters, the national real estate development investment decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, the newly started housing area decreased by 38.0%, the completed housing area decreased by 19.9%, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 22.2%, and the sales volume of commercial housing decreased 26.3%, and the in-place funds of real estate development enterprises decreased by 24.5%. At the end of September, the area of commercial housing for sale increased by 8.1% year-on-year, of which the area for sale of residential buildings increased by 15.6%. In September, the real estate development prosperity index was 94.86, a continuous decline for 8 months, and it has dropped to the “lower prosperity level” defined by the National Bureau of Statistics below 95.
Private and eastern investments are cautious.In the first three quarters, investment in the social sector increased by 13.2% year-on-year, but private investment increased by only 2.0% year-on-year; national fixed-asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, but only increased by 0.53% month-on-month in September; investment in the eastern region increased by 4.3% year-on-year. %, but the growth rate was significantly lower than the 10.0% in the central region and 6.7% in the western region.
Consumption is affected by the spread of the epidemic and the lockdown.In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods only increased by 0.7% year-on-year, of which catering revenue fell by 4.6%; the national online retail sales increased by 4.0% year-on-year, the growth rate was significantly faster than the total retail sales of consumer goods, and it was one of the few industries that benefited from the epidemic. The national per capita consumption expenditure on clothing decreased by 1.1%, and the per capita consumption expenditure on education, culture and entertainment decreased by 4.2%.
Employment is affected by the spread of the epidemic and the lockdown.In September, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the unemployment rate of migrant workers with agricultural household registration was 5.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 25-59 was 4.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; The unemployment rate for youth aged 16-24 was 17.9%, which was still impressive, although it was down 2 percentage points from the peak in July. Needless to say, the employment rate of college students will be overestimated. Due to the pressure of image and future enrollment, some colleges and universities will induce graduates to sign false tripartite employment agreements, thereby increasing the employment rate. Since the beginning of this year, the national Omicron epidemic has been fluctuating and endless, and it is difficult to verify the employment rate of college graduates. It is not surprising that colleges and universities report more than a quarter.
Exports have a slowing trend.In September, the total value of exports increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; the total value of exports to the United States decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 7.8 percentage points from the previous month.
(Note: The author is a part-time researcher at the Global Competency Research Institute of Shandong University (Weihai), WeChat account: SSWYPL. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor in charge is email [email protected])