The conflict in Ukraine amplifies the hikes of energy and other commodities, increases the scarcity of materials and uncertainty. Adding to the effects of the contagions, this reduces GDP in the first quarter of 2022 and extends a shadow over the second: the trend in April is compromised and the prospects are gloomy. Thus the Confindustria flash situation in April according to which in March, the erosion of confidence in manufacturing companies, already underway since the end of 2021, was accentuated. 58.3). Total orders for manufacturing are still in a modest decline. After the volatility of January-February, the impact of the conflict on production is expected to deepen in March: this means a significant decline in the Q1 average, which contributes a lot to the decline in GDP.
In services, the PMI indicates a slowdown in March (52.1 from 52.8) and business confidence is down (99.0 from 100.4). Due to infections and uncertainty, household mobility remains compressed (for leisure time -16.6% in the 1st quarter from pre-Covid), keeping the demand for services weak. This is added to a still partial recovery of tourism up to February (-15% travel by foreigners to Italy).