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original title:[收盘评论]September 17 DCE market: demand pessimism increased iron oreThe main force continues to hit a new low for more than 16 months. Source: Wenhua Finance
With the release of the document for soliciting opinions on production restrictions during the heating season, the pessimistic expectations on the iron ore demand side have increased again, and the main iron ore force continued to decline, eventually closing down 6.95% to 629 yuan/ton, continuing to set the low for more than 16 months.
Yesterday, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the “Autumn and Winter Air Pollution Comprehensive Treatment Plan for Key Regions 2021-2022 (Draft for Comment)”. Compared with previous years, the scope of production restrictions this year has been expanded. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Plan for Improving the Dual Control System of Energy Consumption Intensity and Total Volume” to resolutely control high-energy-consumption and high-emission projects, and the prospects for iron ore demand continue to be overcast.
Therefore, from the demand side, under the policy of double control of crude steel reduction and energy consumption, with the heating season limited production and the arrival of the Winter Olympics, production restriction is still a weapon to suppress the demand for iron ore entering the furnace, which is affected by energy consumption. Under the influence of “double control”, most steel mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have recently received notices of production cuts and plan to gradually implement production cuts. The pressure on production in Guangxi, Shandong and other places has deepened its transmission to the emotional side. According to data from my steel network, the total steel output this week dropped sharply by 399,600 tons or 3.64% to 9,783,300 tons. It fell below 10 million tons after a lapse of 17 months. In particular, electric furnaces were shut down and restricted production. The thread output plummeted.
Traders in some parts of the port have increased the phenomenon of dumping goods due to capital constraints, and steel mills do not rush to purchase. The latest data of my steel shows that 247 steel mills have successively set new lows for imported iron ore inventory, and spot transactions have been sluggish. This week, the port iron The average daily port volume of ore dropped to a low of two and a half months, and the daily transaction volume of iron ore at the port was less than 800,000 tons for several consecutive days. However, due to the significant drop in arrivals, according to my steel network data, this week’s domestic iron ore inventory at 45 ports fell by 594,600 tons or 0.46% to 1,297,574 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, but it is still difficult for the inventory to drop slightly. Obstruct the market’s pessimistic expectations of demand.
Sinosteel Futures reminded that the expected tightening of near-term production will dominate the market trend. The pessimistic expectation of demand has intensified. The spot side continues to weaken under this expectation and the sharp decline in actual demand. The pessimism of traders continues to expand, and the basis of the 01 contract has sharply converged. The disk followed the decline. The supply side continues to rebound, and it is unable to provide support for the time being, and supply and demand are gradually becoming loose.
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