Exchange rate and prices expected to remain stable in third quarter, according to survey
A recent survey conducted by the Institute for Research in Economic Sciences (IICE) of the University of Costa Rica (UCR) has revealed that employers anticipate stable exchange rates and prices in the third quarter of this year.
The survey, known as the Survey of Business Expectations, found that 45.3% of entrepreneurs expect stability in the value of the dollar compared to the colón between July and September. This is an increase of 8.1 percentage points compared to the previous analysis. The average value during the survey period was ¢545,2 in the sale of the dollar.
Among those expecting stability in the exchange rate, one-third believe it will not affect the competitiveness of their companies, while 33.8% think it will. The same percentage of respondents believe that stability in the exchange rate will benefit their companies the most.
Meanwhile, the percentage of respondents who anticipate an increase in the exchange rate decreased from 42.4% in the second quarter to 34% in the current quarter. On the other hand, those who believe that the US currency will lose its value even more fell from 13% in the second quarter to 11.8% in the third.
When broken down by sector, the agricultural industry expects the greatest increase in the dollar (42.1%), while the services sector believes it can decrease the most (15.7%). The manufacturing industry, on the other hand, is the most optimistic, with 54.5% expecting the cost of the US currency to remain the same as in recent months.
When examining the opinions of exporting and non-exporting companies separately, the survey found that exporters have a more positive outlook regarding the potential stabilization of the dollar’s value in the quarter. Of the exporters surveyed, 43.3% believe it would have a positive effect, while 37.6% of non-exporting companies consider it mainly negative.
The survey also delved into the business community’s exporting activities, with 22.4% of respondents indicating they were exporters. Among these exporters, 42% stated that they sell less than a quarter of their production outside the country, while 15% export more than half and 40% export between 25% and 50%.
Regarding prices, the survey revealed that 70% of respondents anticipate prices to remain stable from July to September. This is an increase compared to the previous quarter (62.2%). Only 19% expect prices to increase, while 8% anticipate a decrease.
The construction sector stands out as the industry with the highest expectation of price increases (31%), while the agricultural sector expects the most significant decrease (26%). On the other hand, the manufacturing sector expects the highest level of price stability (77%).
Overall, the survey indicates that the national business community has lower expectations for price changes compared to the second quarter of the previous year. The net balance for price expectations decreased from 17.6% to 11.3%, representing a decrease of 6.3%.
The survey was conducted between May 22 and June 8, 2021, and included responses from 415 companies.