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The crisis in the Red Sea is also starting to have a direct impact on energy supplies. At least 5 ships transporting liquefied gas from Qatar – three of which loaded with LNG bound for Europe – have interrupted their journey. And dozens of tankers carrying oil and fuel have also stopped on the high seas or are changing course, to avoid passage in an area that is becoming increasingly risky.
A fluid situation, which in the long run threatens to compromise the availability of fuels and inflame prices, but which for the moment is causing a very lukewarm reaction on the markets. Gas in particular begins the week with a drop of around 5%, trading just above 30 euros per megawatt hour at the TTF, close to the lowest levels since August. Crude oil prices, very volatile in recent days, started the session on the rise and then turned negative: Brent lost around half a percentage point, to around 77 dollars a barrel.
Alongside geopolitics, other influencing factors are at play, which often prevail on the market. On the one hand there are central bank policies, which investors continue to consider, despite everything, as oriented towards reducing interest rates. On the other hand, the fundamentals are reassuring: for gas in particular, demand remains moderate (despite the intense cold) and stocks in both Europe and Asia are very high for this period of the year.
The situation in the Red Sea, however, is far from reassuring. The repeated attacks by the Houthis against passing ships – which have already caused a collapse in container ship traffic – have been compounded by the harsh military reaction of the United States and Great Britain, who to stop the Shiite guerrillas have struck targets on Yemeni territory several times. An escalation which alone could justify an increase in raw material prices, through what is called a “geopolitical premium”.
The flight of oil and methane tankers from the region – which began after a delay mainly for contractual reasons – is linked to the recent raids against the Houthis. The Combined Marine Force (Cfm), to which the Anglo-American forces report, on Friday the 12th ordered all ships to “keep well away from Bab al-Mandab”, the strait that “closes” the southern part of the Red Sea, connecting it to the Gulf of Aden. The appeal was also issued through Intertanko, the association of independent tanker shipowners, and was not taken lightly.