Financial Lianliankan|The last suspense: Is the Shanghai Composite Index closing positive or negative this year?Fly into the homes of ordinary people
The broader market still fluctuated slightly this week. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down on the K-line of the week and fell below 3,500 points; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index was basically flat. Entering the fourth quarter, the overall market is relatively weak and hesitant. This is related to the slight decline in the performance of listed companies in the third quarter that affects market confidence. There are only less than 2 months left this year, and how to close the K-line in the year has become the last suspense. In history, the annual K-line of the Shanghai Composite Index has never been three consecutive positives. In 2019 and 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index is both a positive one. If this law remains unchanged, this year will close the negative one. Will it break the record and close the Yangxian this year?
Caption: Weekly K-line chart of the ChiNext Index
The consolidation pattern is still the year K-line has suspense
This week is the first week of November. After the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell slightly in October, it continued to bottom out this week. It closed at 3,491.57 points on Friday. This is the first time in more than two months that the close of the week fell below the 3,500 point mark, the weekly K line. Closed out the small Yinxian, the weekly decline was 1.57%.
The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index is relatively better. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14462.62 points on Friday, a slight increase of 0.08% this week; the ChiNext Index closed at 3352.75 points on Friday, a slight increase of 0.05% this week. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index is basically flat, and the Shenzhen Component Index has been basically flat for 6 consecutive weeks.
No matter whether the index rose or fell slightly this week, the amplitude was very small. Generally, it was still in a volatile pattern. The Shanghai Composite Index was more obvious. This period of time has always fluctuated around 3,500 points. Even though it fell below 3,500 points on Friday, this period The time is longer than 3500. The trend of this small fluctuation is almost the trend of the whole year.
Caption: Weekly K-line chart of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index
There are only less than 2 months left this year, and this pattern of small fluctuations is likely to continue. The biggest suspense now is where to close this year. It is very interesting to say that the Shanghai Composite Index has a pattern after 1993. The Shanghai Composite Index has at most two consecutive K-line Yang lines in the year, and there has been no three consecutive positives so far. That is to say, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen for two consecutive years at most, and will definitely fall in the third year. In the most recent two years, the annual K-lines of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index in 2019 and 2020 are both positive, and the annual K-line is two consecutive positives. Will this year close the Yinxian or break the record to close the Yangxian?
In 2020, the Shanghai Composite Index will close at 3473.07 points. At the end of this year, if you receive this position, the annual K-line will be the Yinxian, and vice versa. , But it is likely to be Xiaoyinxian or Xiaoyangxian.
Caption: Weekly K-line chart of Shanghai Composite Index
The performance is mixed, the market hesitates and hesitates
The performance of listed companies is an important factor affecting the broader market. The third quarterly report of listed companies that was disclosed last week is worth studying. The performance of listed companies in the first three quarters of this year was very good. From January to September, 4541 listed companies achieved a total operating income of 47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%; a total net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 4.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26 %. Over the past 30 years, the total annual net profit of listed companies has never exceeded 4 trillion yuan. The first three quarters of this year have exceeded 4 trillion yuan, setting a new record. Judging from the current trend, the net profit of listed companies this year is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan, reaching a new level.
However, looking at the third quarter of this year alone, the situation is not so optimistic. In the third quarter of this year, all A-share companies achieved a total net profit of 1.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Excluding financial companies, the situation was down 6%, which was lower than market expectations. . In terms of different industries, the single-quarter profit growth of the upper and middle-upstream materials industry has slowed down significantly, and many downstream industries have experienced negative profit growth under cost pressure.
Caption: SZSE Component Index Weekly K-line Chart
Meng Lei, an A-share strategist at UBS Securities, believes that the negative growth in single-quarter earnings in the third quarter may exacerbate investors’ concerns about the economic slowdown. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, weaker economic activity and higher earnings base may further suppress growth momentum. It is not ruled out that the single-quarter earnings will continue to maintain negative growth in the fourth quarter.
Concerns about performance have restricted the recent market trend. On the other hand, after all, the performance of listed companies in the first three quarters of this year is still quite good, and the overall market valuation is not high, so that the market does not have much room for decline, and box shocks are justified. The main theme of the market.
Xinmin Evening News reporter Lian Jianming
Editor: Luo Shuiyuan
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