GDP, after the setback recorded in June in economic terms and net of seasonal factors, should have returned to growth in July, with + 0.9% monthly and + 6.5% annually, a figure which consolidates the prospects for growth close to, if not greater than, 5% for 2021. Confcommercio estimates this in the new flash situation.
In the last month, the experts of the confederation of Piazza Belli report, the forecasts regarding economic activity in Italy in 2021, by national and international institutes, have been corrected upwards by about half a percentage point (from 4.6% -4.7% to 5.1% and above), in response to the emergence of a more lively recovery than expected. «It also seems – adds Confcommercio – that there is a solid consensus on the fact that in 2021 the gap between GDP growth and consumption growth will be between one point and one and a half percentage points, in favor of the former. Therefore, it would be the investments that would provide the boost to the gross product. Our estimates are in line with these parameters, although the difference between the change in GDP and that in consumption could be less than a percentage point, testifying to the fact that consumption is also turning out to be a bit more dynamic than expected ».