The Italian GDP should grow more than the average of the euro area: + 5.8% in 2021 (+0.9 percentage points more than the July estimates) and + 4.2% in 2022. This is what the Mediobanca Studies Area which presented the annual survey on the main Italian companies. “These forecasts are still characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, as they depend on various variables such as the evolution of the pandemic, the vaccination plan and the ability to effectively use the resources of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan”, reports the study. The hopes of economic recovery also hang on the tensions on the prices of energy, gas and oil and the rise in the prices of raw materials due to their scarce availability. Missing are wood, plastic, iron, steel, copper, tin, aluminum and, consequently, the semiconductors that govern the electronics, telecommunications, household appliances, automotive and components industries. The crux of raw materials is assumed to be of a temporary nature, but there is a risk that for some sectors it may also become structural.
In addition to the potential represented by the aforementioned PNRR which will give the possibility of creating a green, digitized and more productive economy, the manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from the recovery in export demand in key markets. Thus, if in 2020 the aggregate of industrial and service companies recorded a decrease in turnover equal to 11.7%, for 2021 the Mediobanca Research Area expects an increase of approximately 8% and a further +6, 5% in 2022.