The industrialized countries organization OECD has slightly raised its forecast for the global economy this year from 2.6 to 2.7 percent growth.
The OECD, on the other hand, lowered the outlook for Germany by 0.3 percentage points. She no longer believes that Germany will grow in 2023. The economy stagnates with high inflation.
This puts Germany at the bottom of all industrialized countries – only just for Russia. For Putin’s war economy, the OECD raised the forecast again to just minus 1.5 percent.
The Industrialized States Organization OECD has their forecast for the world economy increased again slightly. She now expects the G20 countries to grow by 2.7 percent this year. That is 0.1 percentage points more than in the spring forecast. In its outlook, the World Bank assumes only 2.1 percent. This is the lowest growth in the global economy for decades.
Biggest problem child Germany, the fourth largest economy in the world after the US, China and Japan. The OECD lowered its forecast for Germany by 0.3 percentage points. At best, she believes that the German economy is still capable of stagnation this year, i.e. no growth gross domestic product (GDP) more. At the same time, stay Inflation high. So Germany is stuck in stagflation. The high inflation is reducing consumption and thus slowing down the recovery.
German economy in recession
In the first quarter of 2023, economic output in Germany was already 0.5 percent below the previous year’s value. After bad figures from the industry and in the important surveys on the mood among companies, more and more economists recently lowered their forecast for the economy in Germany. After that BIP had already fallen in the fourth quarter, Germany is officially in one recession. Quite a few are now assuming that the German economy will also shrink throughout 2023.
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According to the OECD, Germany brings up the rear of the major industrialized countries – and is even just ahead of Russia. For Putin’s war economy, the OECD once again raised its outlook. She now assumes that the Russian economy will shrink by only 1.5 percent this year, despite all the sanctions. At the very end of the scale is the emerging country of Argentina, whose economy will contract slightly more, by 1.6 percent.
Russia’s economic performance is currently being supported by high government spending on the defense industry and grants for private households. Russia’s income from energy exports is declining. However, China and India are buying large quantities of oil from Russia, albeit with price reductions.
Global economy is recovering only slowly
The OECD believes that the global economy has bottomed out. However, most countries and world trade recovered only very slowly from the corona pandemic and the shock waves from the Russian attack on Ukraine, especially from high energy prices. It is positive that the delivery bottlenecks are decreasing. In the next year, too, growth will increase only slightly to 2.9 percent. This is still less than the average of the ten years before Corona. There is still a long way to go to strong and sustainable growth.
With material from the dpa
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