If you ask Dirk Jänichen about the order situation in his Berlin plumbing and heating company, he points to the long row of file slipcases that stretches across several cupboards in his office. “These are all orders that we received last year and that we are now processing,” says the graduate engineer for supply engineering. “Anyone who wants to have a heat pump installed currently has to wait nine months.”
Jänichen has 24 employees, including three trainees. In the past, they often had orders for new bathrooms. But since Russia invaded the Ukraine, new heaters have been ordered in particular. “It started in 2022 when suddenly everyone was afraid that there would be no more gas, so everyone wanted heat pumps.” Jänichen can install 40 units per year and also install the solar systems that make such heating really efficient.
Climate-neutral heating by 2045
Heat pumps work with electricity, and if it is generated from renewable energies, the heating is practically climate-neutral. Therefore, the federal government subsidizes the installation with up to 40 percent of the costs.
But even with the subsidy, a system for a single-family house with around 150 square meters of living space still costs around 17,000 euros. In the case of older houses, there are also the costs for energy-related refurbishment, which includes, for example, thermal insulation and tight windows. The worse a house is insulated, the more complex it is to renovate and the more expensive it becomes in the end, and it can easily run into six figures.
The price makes many hesitate
A new gas heater, on the other hand, only costs around 10,000 euros. “When it became clear at the end of last year that Germany was getting enough gas and the price of gas was going down again, many customers said that I’d rather install a gas heating system again for the time being, which is available and cheaper,” says Jänichen.
Each slipcase contains an order. Dirk Jänichen in his office in Berlin
Will this calculation work out in the long term? It is true that no one can know how high the gas price will be in ten years. What is certain, however, is that the price of CO2 emissions must rise significantly if the European Union wants to achieve its climate goals. Experts think it is possible that the CO2 price in 2030 could be seven cents per kilowatt hour of gas, which would be added to the actual price of the fuel. Electricity for the heat pump, which is currently expensive, could become cheaper.
80 percent of Germans heat with gas and oil
According to the Federal Heat Pump Association, 1.2 million heat pumps have been installed in Germany to date. Most in new buildings. The situation is different for the housing stock. Of the approximately 19 million residential buildings, almost 50 percent are heated with gas and 25 percent with oil. The stock is divided into 13 million single-family homes, with the remainder half being two- and half-family houses.
According to the Agora Energiewende think tank, the building sector causes around 15 percent of Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions. Statutory emission reduction targets have always been broken in recent years.
Ban on fossil fuel heating from 2024
That should change now. Economics Minister Robert Habeck is working on a legal reform to make the building sector climate-neutral by 2045. The core of the draft is a ban on the installation of new oil and gas heating systems from 2024. New heating systems should be able to be operated with at least 65 percent renewable energies. Defective gas heaters or oil burners can no longer simply be exchanged for fossil-based heating.
Wants to speed up the heat transition: The Green Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck
An announcement that triggered a rush to heating installers across Germany. Many homeowners are panicking and trying to buy a gas or oil heating system this year. Dirk Jänichen is also experiencing this. “Especially among older customers, there is currently such a huge demand for the old oil heating systems, I would not have thought it possible,” reports the engineer.
Special regulation for over 80-year-olds
Building a house or buying an apartment is often part of retirement planning. When you retire, the loan is repaid and the housing costs are significantly reduced. A costly energetic renovation of the house nullifies this calculation. As a rule, pensioners do not get a new loan and the retirement benefits are not sufficient to cover the costs.
There are around 13 million single-family homes in Germany. Many are decades old and poorly insulated
In the meantime, it is said that people who are 80 years and older are exempt from the exchange obligation. Even if your fossil heating system breaks down. This also applies to landlords. But the uncertainty is there and it is great. Will the exception have legal validity? What if someone is 79 years old and goes to court because he or she feels discriminated against?
Craftsmen are also overwhelmed
Many details of the change in the law are still vague, the funding guidelines for new heaters are opaque and difficult to understand. The need for advice from customers, but also the need for information from colleagues in his industry is enormous, says Jänichen, who is on the board of the Berlin Guild for Sanitary, Heating and Air Conditioning and knows the concerns and needs of his colleagues. Guidelines are constantly changing and new things are always being added. “How is a normal craftsman, who is out on the construction site all day, supposed to manage to work on the complicated matter in the office in the evening?”
There are always new regulations and funding guidelines – Dirk Jänichen is often forced to sit at his desk
Especially since the job has become more complex anyway. Installing a heat pump is technically very different than installing gas or oil heating, and it also takes two and a half times as much time and work. Fitters must be trained and constantly educated.
In addition, not only the pumps have long delivery times, but all possible materials are no longer immediately available. “In the past, a fitter drove to the wholesaler, bought the parts there, brought them to the construction site and installed them,” says Jänichen. “Today we have to order everything and store the parts here on site, and when we have everything together I call the customer and offer them an appointment for the installation.”
Order and collect: Dirk Jänichen has set up a large material store
Skilled workers are missing
Against this background, the engineer considers the federal government’s plan to install 500,000 heat pumps per year from 2024 unrealistic. Although the industry has promised to be able to deliver more devices from autumn, there are simply not enough specialist companies and skilled workers available for installation. The Central Association of German Crafts calls for more time to implement the plans. Stricter rules for replacing heating systems should not apply until 2025.
“Politicians should have started 20 years ago to make the heating sector climate-neutral,” criticizes Jänichen, “but the gas from Russia was cheap and the stinginess is great mentality.” Looking at his company, he believes it is feasible to be able to install up to 60 heat pumps per year instead of the current 40. Reinforcement in his plans comes from his own family. His two sons, who actually wanted to take a different career path than their father, are suddenly interested in the craft. “They used to say we didn’t feel like running the business, but what we do today has a lot to do with ecology and climate protection. The young people like that.”