The Superbonus boosted investment and consumption, but it blew up the Italian deficit, which reached 8% last year against an estimate of 5.6%. This is what Istat puts on paper, specifying that the impact of tax credits weighed on the calculation: the same item that forced the Institute of Statistics to revise – negatively – the data of 2020 and 2021 In the first year of the pandemic, the deficit was 9.7% of GDP (compared to the 9.5% estimated in September), while in the following twelve months it was expected to reach 9% from the estimated 7.2%.
From an economic point of view, however, GDP grew by 3.7% (in line with Nadef estimates, but less than the 3.9% estimated in January by Istat) with a 9.4% increase in investments gross fixed income and 3.5% of national final consumption. As regards foreign flows, exports of goods and services rose by 9.4% and imports by 11.8%.
And if the Superbonus has created problems on the deficit front, the situation has improved in terms of public debt because – explains Istat – «it has been revised following the change introduced in the accounting treatment of tax credits». The debt/GDP ratio fell in 2022 from 149.8% to 144.7%, a better figure than Nadef’s estimates which indicated debt at 145.7% of GDP last year.
In the light of the new interpretative framework and following the outcome of the methodological investigations conducted jointly by Istat and Eurostat, the accounting treatment of the Superbonus 110% and of the so-called “Bonus facades” has changed starting from the 2020 estimate year. Both credits of tax are now classified as “payable” type tax credits, and recorded in the consolidated account of the general government as expenses for the entire amount» in line with the time of registration envisaged by the Mgdd2022 (Manual on Government Deficit and Debt – Implementation of Esa 2010 – 2022 edition) i.e. at the moment of sustaining the subsidized investment expenditure». In the previous estimates, both concessions had been classified as “non-payable” tax credits and were therefore recorded as less revenue in the year of use of the credit (therefore, as lesser tax revenue).
In this scenario, the tax burden on Italian taxpayers remained substantially stable in 2022. From 43.4% of GDP in 2021, it went to 43.5% last year.