1. Overseas markets: the Federal ReservecurrencyTightening expectations continued to strengthen, and the market was divided on the rate of the first rate hike.Judging from the Fed’s January rate meeting and Powell’s recent speeches, the Fed’s March rate hike is basically a sure thing, but the market is still divided on the rate of the first rate hike. After the release of U.S. inflation data, the market’s interest rate hike expectations continued to strengthen. As of last week (2022/2/4), the market expected a 66% probability of a 25BP rate hike in March; after the release of the inflation data, the market expected a 49% probability of a 50BP rate hike in March.federalfundinterest rateFutures show that the number of interest rate hikes in 2022 will be 6.29. Compared with January, the current market rate hike expectations are rising faster.
2. Currently in the transmission period from loose money to loose credit, the policy of “steady growth” is expected to be gradually strengthened.Data released by the central bank showed that in Januarycredit, social financing data exceeded market expectations, but the credit structure still needs to be optimized. For example, the impulse of bills continues, and household loans are still weak. Combined with the current high-frequency data of commercial housing transactions, it is not difficult to see that the “market bottom” of the real estate industry is still far from the “policy bottom”. The central bank’s fourth-quarter commodity policy report pointed out that in the next stage, it will focus on increasing financial support for key areas and weak links, emphasizing “stable total volume and excellent structure”, and further clarify the orientation of easing credit. In the follow-up, with the convening of the two sessions, the policy of “steady growth” is expected to gradually increase.
3. There are structural bright spots in the earnings of A-share companies.Judging from the annual report forecasts of listed companies, the high-boom technology manufacturing industry has the highest number of companies exceeding expectations, and the upstream resource products industry has a high pre-sale rate. A-share annual reportperformanceThe pre-announcement disclosure rate reached 54%, of which there were 1,475 stocks with good performance (pre-increase/slight increase/turnover/continued profit), accounting for 58%. In terms of different industries, the industries with the highest pre-happy rate are: steel,non-ferrous metals,coal,Bankbasic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, etc. The top industries that exceed expectations (Wind’s consensus forecast) are: basic chemicals, electronics, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and mechanical equipment.
4. Investment strategy: It is in the stage of strategic layout in the medium and long term.The current A shares are still in a period of shock and repeated bottom grinding. The adjustment of the A-share high valuation boom track is a “cold spring” after the general rise in the early stage, and many factors restricting the strength of the A-share market need to be gradually digested.In a slightly longer period of time, A shares are in the stage of strategic layout. First, after nearly two months of release of market sentiment and short-term violent venting, risks have been fully released; second, the long-term stable and positive trend of China’s economy remains unchanged. The follow-up policy of stabilizing growth is expected to gradually strengthen; third, from the annual report forecast of listed companies, there are many structural bright spots in the earnings of A-share companies. In terms of configuration, focus on two main investment lines:
First, the policy of “steady growth” allocates varieties, such as “stable growth”Bankreal estate, building materials, etc.;
The second is to benefit from the expectation of price increase (price increase),”food and drinkbreeding,agricultural products“Wait.
In terms of themes, focus on “new energy (vehicles), digital economy, seed industry” and so on.
■Risk warning:Domestic and foreign epidemics are repeated; overseas markets fluctuate greatly; corporate profits are lower than expected; overseas black swan events (political risk, sovereign rating downgrade), etc.
(Article source: Strategy Li Lifeng and Industry Configuration Notes)