Original title: China’s GDP exceeds 110 trillion yuan in 2021, and the policy of stable growth promotes a stable start in the first quarter of this year
Whether it is an inertial fall or an upward trend, the market is divided on the judgment of the first quarter.
Editor’s note
The 2021 China Economic “Annual Report” will be released. On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the operation of the national economy in 2021. Under the complex and severe international environment and the multiple tests of the domestic epidemic, there are still many bright spots in the national economy: the total economic volume has reached 114.4 trillion yuan, exceeding 110 trillion yuan; the innovation momentum has been effectively enhanced, and the industrial manufacturing industry has grown rapidly. The two indicators of commercial housing sales and sales area both reached their historical peaks; the urbanization rate continued to increase. Overall, my country’s economy will continue to recover steadily in 2021, and economic development and epidemic prevention and control will maintain a leading position in the world. However, in 2022, China’s economy will still face the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. “Stable growth” and “sustained recovery” have become key words.
On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for 2021.
According to preliminary calculations, the annual GDP was about 114.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1% over the previous year, and an average growth of 5.1% over the two years. In terms of quarters, the first quarter increased by 18.3% year-on-year, the second quarter increased by 7.9% year-on-year, the third quarter increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the fourth quarter increased by 4.0% year-on-year.
On January 17, Ning Jizhe, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that from the average growth rate of the two years, the growth rates in the first, second, third and fourth quarters were 4.9%, 5.5% and 5.5% respectively. 4.9%, 5.2%, the average growth rate for the two years in the fourth quarter was higher, and the overall economic operation was stable throughout the year.
In the fourth quarter, the economy emerged from the bottom in the third quarter, and the bottom-up recovery trend was obvious. Among them, industry and service industries are recovering steadily, exports have maintained high growth, investment growth has been relatively sluggish but basically stabilized, and consumption is still weakening due to the impact of the domestic spread of the epidemic. The two-year average economic growth in the fourth quarter was 5.2%. Although it was still lower than the 5.5% in the second quarter, it has returned to the annual average.
However, the policy of stabilizing growth is already working hard to protect the economy in the first quarter. In addition to the special bonds issued since the fourth quarter, on January 17, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to prevent “layers of overweight” prevention and control, and launched ten measures to promote consumption; the central bank’s one-year MLF operating rate was reduced by 10 BP, 7 The interest rate of Tianreverse repurchase operation was lowered by 10 BPs, and the financing demand was boosted by cutting interest rates.
The current economy is still facing downward pressure. For example, the two-year average growth rate of real estate investment and commercial housing sales continues to decline. The spread of the epidemic in many domestic cities still has an impact on consumption. Whether the economic recovery in the fourth quarter will continue into the first quarter of this year remains to be seen. observe.
The market is divided on the economic situation in the first quarter. 21st Century Business Herald reporters found that some institutions believe that the economic growth rate in the first quarter will continue to decline (compared to the two-year average growth rate in the fourth quarter), with a year-on-year growth rate of around 4.5%-5%; some institutions believe that in the first quarter It may continue the upward trend, and the growth rate is expected to reach about 5.3%.
The economy will bottom out in the fourth quarter of 2021
In 2021, my country’s total economic volume will reach 114.4 trillion yuan, exceeding 110 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world. In 2021, my country’s economy will grow by 8.1% year-on-year, ranking among the top among major economies, with an average growth rate of 5.1% in the two years, which is closer to the normal level before the epidemic (6%).
Against the background of the “epidemic of the century and the changing situation of the century”, my country’s economy has continued to recover, the main expected goals have been basically achieved, and the achievements have not come easily. In 2021, my country’s per capita GDP will be close to 81,000 yuan, equivalent to about 12,600 US dollars, gradually approaching the lower limit of the per capita level of high-income countries. In 2021, 12.69 million new urban jobs will be created, completing the expected goal of more than 11 million. In 2021, the per capita disposable income of national residents will increase by 8.1% in real terms, with an average growth of 5.1% in the two years, which is basically in line with economic growth.
In terms of quarters, due to the base effect of “low before and high”, the year-on-year growth rate in the four quarters of 2021 will be “high before and low”, respectively 18.3%, 7.9%, 4.9%, and 4%. However, the two-year average growth rates in each quarter were relatively stable, at 4.9%, 5.5%, 4.9%, and 5.2%, respectively.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the economy has bottomed out and the recovery trend is obvious, and the trend of accelerated economic downturn in the third quarter has been rewritten. The most obvious recovery in the fourth quarter was industrial production. The average growth rate of industrial production above designated size in October, November and December was 5.2%, 5.4%, and 5.8%, respectively. The supply constraints brought about by power and production restrictions in the third quarter receded significantly under the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the fourth quarter. Strong exports led to the accelerated recovery of industrial production.
In 2021, my country’s exports will continue to be strong, becoming the main force driving economic recovery. In 2021, the total import and export of goods will be about 39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. Among them, exports were about 21.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.2%.
This is due to my country’s complete industrial system, which can quickly adapt to market changes and promote the increase in supply. Ning Jizhe said that in 2021, the market will face the problem of lack of cores and containers. China’s integrated circuits will increase by 33.3% year-on-year, and the output of metal containers will double. The epidemic has driven the global demand for home office and living. In 2021, my country’s production of microcomputer equipment will increase by 22%, and the output of smartphones will increase by 9% – what is lacking in the market, China can produce.
However, domestic demand remained weak in the fourth quarter of 2021. In 2021, the national fixed asset investment will grow by an average of 3.9% in two years, although it has slightly rebounded from the first three quarters, it is still at a relatively low level. Among them, investment in the manufacturing industry has accelerated significantly, with an average growth rate of 4.8% in the two years of the year. The growth rate of real estate investment is still declining, with an average growth rate of 5.7% in the two years for the whole year, down 1.5 percentage points from the first three quarters.
In 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods will grow by an average of 3.9% in two years, which is far lower than the growth rate of about 8% before the epidemic. The epidemic has significantly dragged down consumption. Although consumption in the fourth quarter recovered compared to the third quarter, under the influence of the spread of the epidemic in many cities in China, the growth rate of consumption in the fourth quarter dropped month by month. The two-year average growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October, November and December was 4.6 %, 4.4%, 3.9%.
Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald that consumption growth momentum in the fourth quarter of 2021 was weak, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. Food and beverage consumption in November and December both declined year-on-year. The proportion of food and beverage revenue in the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole year was about 10.6%, which had a greater impact on consumption.
Luo Zhiheng, deputy dean of the Yuekai Securities Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that under multiple shocks, the economic growth rate in the third quarter of 2021 will decline too fast. With the elimination of short-term factors of supply constraints, the real estate financing policy has gradually corrected, and the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter has returned to normal. However, the current downward pressure on the economy is still there, the growth rate of real estate investment and sales is still declining, corporate loans are relatively sluggish, and the expected weak situation cannot be changed in the short term.
Growth forecast for the first quarter of 2022
The two-year average economic growth rate in the fourth quarter was stable at 5.2%, but the economic situation in the first quarter of 2022 still faces downward pressure.
Ning Jizhe said that this year is a year in which my country’s economy has gradually returned to normal operation, but the external environment has become more complex and severe, with uncertainties, and domestic development is also under pressure. In general, my country’s economy continues to recover and develop, and the factors that keep the economy operating within a reasonable range have not changed. It is hoped that the economy will achieve stability and progress throughout the year.
The Central Economic Work Conference requires that in 2022, the economic work will take the lead, and policy efforts should be appropriately advanced. Recently, central ministries and commissions have frequently released policy signals of “stabilizing growth”.
On January 17, the “Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Doing a Good Job in Promoting Consumption in the Near Future” was released, requiring all localities to seize the opportunity of the Spring Festival, Lantern Festival and other traditional peak consumption seasons under the premise of accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control to promote the first quarter. The economy is off to a steady start.
In 2021, the local Chinese New Year policy will drag down the economy in the first quarter. In 2022, although many places encourage residents to celebrate the New Year on the spot, the epidemic prevention policy is expected to be refined. The National Development and Reform Commission requires preventing simplification, “one size fits all”, and “layers of overweight” prevention and control to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the production and life of the masses. . In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission also supports the development of new energy vehicles to the countryside, and encourages the development of green smart home appliances to the countryside where conditions permit.
On January 17, the central bank announced an interest rate cut, and the 1-year MLF and 7-day reverse repurchase rates were both cut by 10BP. The central bank’s interest rate cut is conducive to reducing market financing costs and boosting financing demand to cope with the downward pressure on the economy.
Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that exports and real estate, which supported economic growth in 2021, will gradually weaken by 2022. Coupled with the slow recovery of domestic demand, it is difficult for infrastructure investment to carry the banner of steady growth, and the economic growth rate will remain at a moderate level. It is estimated that GDP will grow by about 5% in 2022, of which the growth rate of consumption will be moderately restored to 6.5%, the growth rate of investment will be about 4.5%, and the growth rate of exports will be about 4.5%. Due to the current weak demand and slow recovery of consumption, the economy is expected to grow by 4.5% in the first quarter of 2022.
Luo Zhiheng said that in 2022, the policy of stabilizing consumption may be strengthened. Focusing on promoting the consumption of new energy vehicles, it is not ruled out that there will be a new round of policies for home appliances to go to the countryside. The export growth rate may drop in 2022, but if the international epidemic rebounds, the dependence on China’s exports may still be relatively strong. The economy is expected to grow by 5.2% for the full year. Considering the possibility of an inertial economic downturn, real estate investment and sales have not yet stabilized, and the economy is expected to grow by 5% in the first quarter of 2022.
Zhang Yongjun said that if the economic recovery and growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 can continue, the economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 may be around 5.3%, which is higher than the average growth rate for the whole year and the fourth quarter of 2021. Investment has improved in November and December, a considerable amount of special bonds in 2021 will be carried over to this year, the issuance of special bonds this year is also accelerating, and the pace of new projects is accelerating, all of which are conducive to the formation of physical work in the first quarter. quantity.
Ning Jizhe said that from the perspective of my country’s development stage, there is potential, space and motivation to expand effective investment. The development gap between urban and rural areas in my country is still large, and there are still many weak links in infrastructure and people’s livelihood areas, and there is a broad space for investment to make up for shortcomings. my country’s industrial upgrading and development trend is improving, and enterprises’ investment in innovation is increasing. This year, a series of policies and measures will be introduced that are conducive to manufacturing investment, enterprise R&D investment, and technological transformation investment. The policy of moderately advancing infrastructure investment is in progress. Judging from the number of newly started projects and the investment amount, investment has been accelerating for two consecutive months. At the beginning of the year, a number of key projects were also planned in various places, and the investment growth prospects are promising.
“Affected by the epidemic in many cities in China, the epidemic prevention situation during the Spring Festival this year may be more tense than last year, and the recovery of consumption during the Spring Festival remains to be seen. The United States may raise interest rates as soon as March, which will restrict my country’s policies. It is better to cut interest rates sooner rather than later, and there is still the possibility of cutting interest rates in the future,” Luo Zhiheng said.
(Author: Zhou Xiaoxiao Editor: Bao Fangming)
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