In February, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded in an all-round way, and the economic recovery momentum exceeded market expectations.
On March 1, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in February, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 52.6%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 56.3%, an increase of 1.9% from the previous month percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 56.4%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points from the previous month.
Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told the reporter of Securities Daily that in February, the market demand represented by residents’ consumption rose rapidly, and the effects of policy measures to stabilize the economy further emerged, and the business confidence of enterprises improved. The operating rate rebounded sharply, pushing the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI indexes to continue to rise sharply in the expansion range in February. This means that in the first quarter of this year, the macro economy has fully turned into a recovery stage, and the momentum is strong, exceeding market consensus expectations.
Simultaneous expansion of production and demand
Boosting the prosperity of the manufacturing industry
From the perspective of sub-indices, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, employee index and supplier delivery time index are all higher than the critical point, and the raw material inventory index is lower than the critical point.
“In February, the manufacturing PMI rose sharply by 2.5 percentage points, mainly driven by the production index and the new order index, showing that the current boom in supply and demand is the main driving force for the rise in the manufacturing industry.” Wang Qing said.
Specifically, both ends of production and demand are expanding simultaneously. The production index was 56.7%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the production of the manufacturing industry accelerated significantly; the new order index was 54.1%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing market demand continued to pick up.
Li Qilin, chief economist of Hongta Securities, said that the restoration of the demand side is mainly due to the following four points: first, the recovery of residents’ consumption drives the restoration of related industries; second, infrastructure investment continues to support related industries. Benefiting from last year’s policy-based development financial instruments and this year’s large-scale pre-issue of special bonds to stimulate social funds, as well as the active promotion of local governments, infrastructure investment has maintained a relatively high degree of activity. Since the beginning of the year, it has been concentrated in many places The start of construction of major projects will stimulate the rapid recovery of demand in the raw material industry and equipment manufacturing industry in the upper and middle reaches of the industrial chain; third, the recovery of real estate will drive the post-real estate cycle and the recovery of the raw material industry; fourth, the supply chain disturbance will be alleviated, and the ability of export enterprises to receive orders will be enhanced. The rebound in new export orders in the manufacturing PMI in February was mainly due to the significant restoration of export companies’ ability to receive orders and production capacity after supply-side constraints were eased.
In addition, the raw material inventory index was 49.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the employment index was 50.2%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month; the supplier delivery time index was 52.0%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Wen Tao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, said that the changes in the sub-indexes showed that the positive changes in the economic operation in February increased significantly, from the macro as a whole to the industry and enterprises to the micro-individuals. The release of market demand accelerated, and external constraints improved and supply rebounded. The industrial chain has rebounded in tandem, the vitality of market entities has increased, the number of employees has increased, and the overall economic operation has rebounded for the better.
It is worth noting that the PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were 53.7%, 52.0% and 51.2% respectively, which were 1.4, 3.4 and 4.0 percentage points higher than the previous month. It rose into expansion territory for the first time since May. Wang Qing said that this shows that the foundation of this round of economic recovery is more solid, and it is also a reflection of the effects of various support policies for small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households in the early stage, including tax reduction and exemption, financing support, etc.
The service industry and the construction industry have entered a high-level boom zone
The activity of non-manufacturing business activities has accelerated significantly
Data show that in February, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 56.3%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. It was in the boom range for two consecutive months, and the non-manufacturing industry is recovering and developing well.
“Both the construction industry index and the service industry index have further increased, reflecting that the activity of non-manufacturing business activities has accelerated significantly.” Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that transportation, retail, cultural tourism, accommodation, The demand for catering and other services has accelerated. At the same time, measures such as domestic key infrastructure support and the implementation of the task of guaranteeing delivery of buildings have supported the construction industry to maintain a high degree of prosperity.
In February, the business activity index of the service industry was 55.6%, 1.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The service industry new order index and the service industry business activity expectation index were 54.7% and 64.8% respectively, 3.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous month.
The construction industry business activity index was 60.2%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the previous month. Wang Qing said that the current construction industry is in a high-boom zone, behind which is the large investment in infrastructure, which has effectively hedged the impact of the decline in real estate investment. Focusing on promoting the economy to maintain a rapid recovery momentum, infrastructure investment in the first quarter is expected to continue to maintain a high double-digit growth rate.
At the same time, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that although the proportion of manufacturing and service companies that reported insufficient orders in the survey has dropped compared with the previous month, it still exceeds 50.0%, indicating that the problem of insufficient market demand is still More prominently, the foundation of my country’s economic recovery still needs to be consolidated, and the follow-up trend of the Purchasing Managers Index needs to be further observed.
(Editor in charge: Liu Xiaoxiao)