MILANO – The Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, and Confindustria are confident that with the update note to the Economics and Finance Document that will arrive in the coming weeks, there will be an improvement in the estimates on Italian growth, which will bring with it a better trajectory also for deficit and public debt. Important numbers now that in Europe we are once again discussing the Stability Pact and the need – felt by the “frugal” countries – to return to the rules on the budgets of the member countries.
The markets are scrutinizing the signs of where the wind of the restart can lead. And during the week we look above all at the data on the labor market and on price trends, fundamental above all to guide the moves of the central banks: antennas also raised to the ECB in Frankfurt, where it was noted the improvement in economic conditions and consequently we begin to reduce the pace of purchases of Pepp securities, the extraordinary anti-pandemic support program. But it is above all the Fed, later in the cycle, that is looking at the upcoming data: on Tuesday the update on US inflation for August will be published.
First, on Monday, there will be data on unemployment in the second quarter in Italy and the monthly OPEC report, which will offer indications on the forecasts in terms of demand and supply of crude oil, while general elections will be held in Norway, also in this case strongly polarized on environmental choices and the exploitation of black gold. As the agenda points out Ansa, Italian government bonds at 3, 7 and 30 years go up for auction on Tuesday, data on the labor market are expected from Great Britain in July but central, in the market’s reasoning, worried about the withdrawal of support measures by the Fed , will be American inflation, expected to grow by 5.3% in August, after + 5.4% in July. On Wednesday, eyes will shift to China with retail sales and industrial production data expected to slow from 8.5% to 7% for the former and from 6.4% to 5.8% for the latter. Much attention will also be paid to US industrial production, also seen to slow down compared to July (from +0.9 to + 0.3%), while that of the Eurozone should restart (+ 0.5% in July from – 0.3% in June). On the inflation front, data will arrive from Italy, France and Great Britain while the chief economist of the ECB, Philip Lane, will speak at an IMFS webinar. Unemployment benefits and retail sales in the US will take the stage on Thursday, joined by the manufacturing index of the Philadelphia Fed, with trade balance data from the Eurozone and Japan as a corollary. On Friday there is a risk of market volatility with the “four witches”, due to the expiry of options and futures on stocks and equity indices. Keep an eye on Eurozone inflation, which could jump to 3% in August, from 2.2% in July. In the US, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be published.
As we have seen, therefore, on the markets there are fears that technical maturities may lead to volatility. But according to analysts cited by the Wall Street Journal, concerns are mounting about a possible undertow autumn on the lists: Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America have published reports calling for caution on rising risks in equity markets. stars and stripes. And, on the other hand, the fact that the S & P500 has retouched its record 54 times over the course of 2021 – the largest series of peaks since 1995 – makes it easier for insiders to call for caution for possible setbacks or at least a phase. tired. BofA summed up the most popular considerations to perfection: “What good news remains? Much of the optimism is already included in stock prices,” which therefore have no great propulsion in sight to keep racing. Conversely, there are bogeys ranging from expensive raw materials to the Delta variant.
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