International oil prices are strong, but the bulls do not have the capital to launch a unilateral offensive
On Tuesday (July 13), international oil prices rose, reversing most of the previous day’s decline. Supply tensions and expectations for further reductions in US crude oil inventories provided support, but concerns about the spread of the new crown variant limited the increase.
At 15:53 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.54% to 74.58 US dollars per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.67% to 75.66 US dollars per barrel.
Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at commodity broker Fujitomi, said: “Optimism about tight supply and falling U.S. crude oil inventories has provided support. However, concerns about the surge in global new crown infection cases and the uncertainty of OPEC+ production plan May limit the increase.”
In the week ending July 2, US crude oil inventories fell to their lowest level since February 2020. A preliminary investigation on Monday showed that US crude oil inventories are expected to decline for the eighth consecutive week, and gasoline inventories will also decline.
Investors were dissatisfied with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) monthly drilling production report. According to the report, crude oil production in the seven major shale oil producing areas in the United States in August is expected to increase by 42,000 barrels per day to 7.907 million barrels per day, significantly higher than the 28,000 barrels per day in July.
Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, said: “The expected increase is still relatively small.” He added that continued restrictions on shale oil drilling activities in the United States will support rising oil prices.
OPEC+ sources said that oil-producing countries have not yet made progress on eliminating differences between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Disagreements broke out between the two countries last week, resulting in the failure of oil-producing countries to reach an agreement on increasing oil production, and it is unlikely that another policy meeting will be held this week.
The White House said last week that the United States is paying attention to OPEC+ industrial policy negotiations. But the Kremlin said on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Biden did not discuss oil prices or OPEC+ policies during an hour-long telephone conversation last Friday.
Nevertheless, reports of a surge in the number of infections from around the world have made some investors cautious. The World Health Organization warned that the new crown variant strain Delta is becoming mainstream, and many countries have not yet received enough vaccines to protect their medical workers.
China’s crude oil imports in the first half of the year fell by 3% from the same period last year, the first contraction since 2013. Data released by the General Administration of Customs on Tuesday showed that China’s crude oil imports in June totaled 40.14 million tons, equivalent to 9.77 million barrels per day.
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