The SERIX indicator in December showed a bullish trend on the US and European stock indices. This is what emerges from the data published by Spectrum Markets, according to which trade was likely driven by “December rebound” expectations and short-term profit-taking. The SERIX value indicates individual investor sentiment, on a scale where a number above 100 indicates bullish sentiment, while a number below 100 indicates bearish sentiment.
Michael Hall’s commentary
“Bullish activity is typically concentrated in October as investors wait for markets to regain momentum after the often quieter summer period; this year, however, such activity was recorded in the month of December. This could be due to the global crisis and market volatilityso many investors feel insecure and enter the market a little later than usual,” explains Michael Hall, Head of Distribution at Spectrum Markets.
“With just weeks left of the year, many projections had predicted a rally ahead of Christmas, and even some early December economic data came out better than expected. Despite the persistence of high inflation in Europe and the United States, corporate earnings expectations remained stableleading some traders to hope that the impending recession may be milder than initially thought,” says Hall.
This combination of factors probably contributed to the bullish exposure individual investors took on equity indices in December, although there were also some profit taking on short tradesas investors benefited from downward price swings during the month
116m certificates traded in December
As of December 2022, 116 million certificates have been traded on Spectrum, with 36% of the exchanges taking place outside the traditional hours (i.e. between 5.30pm and 9am CET).
80.5% of the certificates traded were on indices, 7% on commodities, 10.8% on currency pairs, 1.6% on single stocks and 0.1% on cryptocurrencies; the three main markets underlyings traded were the DAX 40 (24.4%), the S&P 500 (20%) and the NASDAQ 100 (16.4%).
Observing i SERIX data for the three main underlyingssentiment on the DAX 40 moved from bearish territory to neutral, climbing from 96 to 100. Sentiment on the S&P 500 moved into bullish territory, moving from 98 to 103. The NASDAQ 100 also experienced a similar turn, moving from neutral of 100 to a bullish score of 103.