According to the latest Istat surveys, a slowdown in retail sales is estimated in July, losing 0.4% in value and 0.7% in volume. Non-food goods decreased by 0.6% in value and by one percentage point in volume. In the May-July quarter, there was a + 0.5% in value and a + 0.4% in volume. Tonic purchases of non-food goods that mark a + 0.7% both in value and in volume, on 3 July in most of the regions the summer sales began, while those of food goods are stable. On a trend basis, in July 2021, retail sales increased by 6.7% in value and 8.8% in volume. The increase concerns both the sales of food goods (+ 4.4% in value and + 4.2% in volume) and those of non-food goods (+ 8.5% in value and + 12.3% in volume) . Purchases have rewarded all distribution channels which, compared to July 2020, see the sprint of proximity stores (+ 8.2%), large-scale distribution (+ 5.6%), e-commerce (+ 6.4%) and the itinerant one (+ 2.6%).
«It does not cause any concern about the real possibilities of growth of the Italian economy also in the second part of the current year – warns the Confcommercio Research Office -. The exit from the most emergency phase of the pandemic was characterized, at first, by the attempt of households to recover the levels of demand for goods, while in more recent periods there has been a shift in consumption towards services, the demand for which it had been heavily compressed in the previous months. On the other hand, the slowdown in July was a common phenomenon in many eurozone countries, with a negative peak in Germany equal to a cyclical reduction in volume of 5.1% against the modest -0.7% of Italy. . The main element of uncertainty about the near future, apart from the evolution of the pandemic, remains the intensity (and duration) of inflation ”. Coldiretti reports that in the month the sales of low-cost foodstuffs in discount stores recorded a + 7.1%. «The positive result of food sales concerns large-scale distribution (+ 5.4%) and small shops (+ 1.9%). A situation that – Coldiretti specifies in a note – highlights the difficulty in which families find themselves, who, in order to save money, direct their expenses on low-priced channels and essential goods such as food and drinks, in the time of Covid. The increase in household food spending continues in fact despite the reopening of bars, restaurants, trattorias and pizzerias with a growing number of Italians who have resumed eating out thanks to the advancement of the vaccination campaign ». Carlo Alberto Buttarelli, director of the studies and relations office with the Federdistribuzione supply chain, talks about the unknown autumn. «In the non-food sector – he observes – the thrust of the balances ran out quickly and the increases recorded in the first part of the summer were offset by the slowdown in recent weeks. There is therefore still a delay on the 2019 values of another 5 percentage points overall, with higher peaks in some product sectors ». Crucially is what will happen in the coming weeks. «The prospects for the autumn are influenced by some unknowns: on the one hand, the vaccination campaign continues to advance, thus avoiding the specter of new closures and strengthening economic growth forecasts; on the other hand, it is not yet clear whether the inflationary pressures that are being registered could have effects on prices, with possible repercussions on consumption. The relaunch of domestic demand, vital for the entire economic system, must be the central element in the recovery strategies to go beyond the climate of prudence and look to the future of the country with renewed optimism ». A sentiment similar to that of Confesercenti which signals a light and dark picture. “After the positive signs of June, the new slowdown shows that – despite the good tourist performance of the summer season – the recovery in consumption has not yet transformed into a structural recovery” is the comment of the Confesercenti Economic Office. While Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumers Union, dubbed the data as «depressing and disheartening. If the industry has already restarted and both production and turnover have already recovered to pre-crisis values, sales have not yet emerged from the tunnel of the crisis. The litmus test that families still struggle to make it to the end of the month and, therefore, purchases remain at stake despite the reopening “.
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