“Uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy has increased since last spring and the risks are increasingly on the downside. In this context, Italy seems to respond better than expected in 2022, with GDP growth of 3.2 per cent. On the other hand, our country could experience a sharp slowdown next year ”. This is what we read in the ‘Note on the economic situation of August 2022’ published by the Parliamentary Budget Office (Upb).
In light of the changes that have taken place in recent months, the UPB has revised its forecasts on the trend of the Italian economy in the two-year period 2022-23. The note notes that the estimates for 2022 improve by three tenths (from 2.9 processed last April, to 3.2 per cent), by virtue of the favorable trends in the first half, which benefited from an expansionary budget policy . The forecast for 2023, on the other hand, undergoes a cut of 1.2 percentage points compared to the spring estimates and slips to 0.9 percent. “The negative revision is primarily due to the protracted conflict in Ukraine, which translates into a deterioration in foreign demand and a greater persistence of inflation,” explains Upb.