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Original title: King Ning has a rare flash crash of hundreds of billions! The reason for the plunge of new energy has found an urgent interpretation of public funds!
Black Friday.
On December 24, after A shares opened higher in the morning, they were no longer able to attack. After that, the market plunged quickly, and the three major indexes fell across the board.Growth Enterprise Market IndexThe intraday fell more than 2% and fell below 3,300 points.
By the end of the market, the three major indexes had fallen across the board. On the list of gains, the Chinese medicine sector had played a role in stabilizing the market, and the consumer sector had risen and played a defensive role.On the decline list, King Ning’s big retracement led to the declineBatteryWhole system concept, new energyBatteryEach concept leader has retraced.
Regarding the reason for the sharp drop in the new energy sector represented by lithium batteries on the 24th,fund companyIt is generally believed that it mainly comes from three bad news, one is sodium ionBatteryThe industry is advancing faster; the second is the possibility of an increase in the supply of lithium resources; the third is the widespread dissemination of articles on a certain public account.
The public offering is more consistent and believes that the new energy car sector is still the top choice for investment next year, and it will once again usher in a better time to get on the car after adjustment. However, the era of simple and extensive investment in the new energy vehicle industry chain may have passed, but the era of refined and sustainable investment may have just begun.
Multiple negatives caused a callback in the new energy sector
Current transactions are relatively crowded
December 24,Ningde eraA rare big drop, the intraday tumbled 8.35%, the largest drop in the past six months. The stock price hit a new low in the past two months, and the market value evaporated over 120 billion yuan a day. As of the close, the stock price fell 7.28%, the turnover was 14.3 billion yuan, and the market value fell 105.5 billion yuan in one day.
Ningde eraAfter hitting the highest share price of 692 yuan per share in the market on the 3rd of this month, it fluctuated all the way, and the market value has evaporated about 300 billion yuan in less than a month. Just this Monday, its stock price also suffered a heavy setback, closing down 6.29%.
“Ningwang” is the largest heavyweight stock on the Growth Enterprise Market and a leading lithium battery company. Driven by its influence, the Growth Enterprise Market fell sharply by more than 2%. Lithium batteries, salt lake lithium extraction, solid-state batteries, new energy vehicles and other sectors plummeted. Among them, the lithium battery sector index fell by more than 2.6%, and the lithium mine index fell by more than 4%.
Safetyfundthink,Ningde eraThe sharp drop in ”was mainly due to the widespread dissemination of articles on a public account and the discussion of the company in the US media, which triggered market concerns about the battery competition pattern and the global political and trade environment.
From a news perspective,China Asset ManagementIt is believed that the adjustment of the lithium battery sector has some bad news.Three Gorges Energy, Three Gorges Capital and the People’s Government of Fuyang City in Anhui Province have reached a cooperation to jointly build the world’s first large-scale mass production line of sodium-ion batteries. Market concerns will have an impact on the original route; second, according to media reports, new geological discoveries have jointly constituted a long-term agreement The 4000-kilometer giant lithium mine belt may increase the supply of lithium resources; third, as the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise, the market is worried about the affordability of downstream automakers.
Regarding the reason for the recent pullback of the new energy industry chain, Xie Tianhui, assistant manager of Chuangjin Hexin Fund Manager, said that the essence lies in the excessive increase in the early stage and the relatively high valuation, and the sector itself has the need to digest the valuation. At the same time, the expectation of a certain liquor leader’s price increase has also caused market funds to flow out of relatively high-valued sectors, or further catalyzed the intraday correction of the new energy sector.
In addition, the market’s concerns about the new energy sector are mainly concentrated in the following areas: First, it is less likely that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 will exceed expectations. The second is that the raw material sector led by lithium may face shortages in 2022, which will affect the production of new energy vehicles and thus the demand. The third is the decline of domestic subsidies and the postponement of US policy.
According to analysis by Wang Wei, fund manager of Tongtai Fund, the ups and downs of the A-share market in 2021, with significant structural market characteristics. The new energy-related industry chain is the hottest sector in the market this year, but the recent performance of the lithium battery sector has not been satisfactory. The main reasons are as follows.
“On the one hand, the market is worried that the tax incentives for electric vehicles in the United States may be variable;Guoxin EnergyThe increase in car costs may affect sales; in addition, near the end of the year, the lithium battery sector has more funds that need to be cashed out; at the same time, the central economic conference has set the tone for stable growth, and marginal improvement in some sectors affected by this has triggeredCash flowTo these plates, the rotation between the plates is formed. “
Kong Xuebing, fund manager of Jinxin Fund, analyzed from a longer-term perspective that in the past two years, electric vehicles have become the hottest sector in the market, with the largest cumulative increase, the industry valuation is at a historic high, and the transactions are the most crowded. All these have given the sector a rapid adjustment in the near future. Lay hidden.
Nord FundFund manager Xie Yi analyzed, “Recently, we have seen a certain degree of correction in the entire market, and this correction is roughly concentrated in two areas. One is this year.PerformanceIt is better. The stock price has performed well throughout the year, but the premium is significantly too high. Another is the investment track where the performance expectations are more than the actual ones. “
In Xie Yi’s view, this adjustment has been going on for some time, and it may be that the full fiscal year is about to end. Performance factors have gradually entered the market’s vision, and the market has spontaneously revised the valuation and performance of individual stocks. This is a manifestation of the rationality of funds and a manifestation of the market’s maturity.
Short-term disturbances will not affect the investment value of the new energy sector
The industry is expected to be more differentiated
Many fund companies believe that short-term news disturbances will not change the long-term investment value of the new energy sector, but in the future, the internal division of the industry will further increase, and stock selection needs to be carefully selected.
China Asset Management has judged that looking back at the market, this year’s new energy is the core of the market, and the fundamental trend is better than expected. At the same time, the valuation has also risen sharply, and the cumulative stock price has risen relatively high.
At the current position of the sector, China Asset Management believes that the overall trend of volatility will continue, and high valuations will gradually have pressure and demand for digestion. In addition, we must be alert to the possible reversal of some supply and demand links, and the stock price fluctuations of this type of products may be higher.
However, China Asset Management also believes that the new energy car sector is still the top choice for investment next year, and it will once again usher in a better time to get on the car after adjustment.
“Currently, the production and manufacturing of new energy vehicles and batteries is still in an unprecedented business cycle. The competition in the new energy industry is a market-oriented behavior. The remarks and attacks of individual countries or media cannot change the current situation of strong competitiveness of leading companies, nor can it change. Industry competition pattern. The dual-carbon theme with new energy as the core will still be the main line of the market in the next few years, and short-term disturbances will not affect the long-term investment value.” In view of the current turbulent and adjusted market, Ping An Fund believes that it can be cautious but not lacking in optimism.
Kong Xuebing, manager of Jinxin Fund, also said, “From the perspective of the law of industrial development, with the rapid increase in the penetration rate of electrification and the rapid increase in the number of shares, the hype in the car manufacturing link has been sufficient, and some companies in the industry chain have general or even poor quality. , Accumulated huge gains in a short period of time, valuation tends to bubble, and the rapid expansion of production capacity may lead to a deterioration in the competitive landscape in the next 1-2 years, and there are greater uncertainties in the performance of some companies. In fact, Since July, we have been cautious about the stock price outlook of some companies with low barriers to competition in the automotive electrification process.” Kong Xuebing said.
For the new energy vehicle industry, Kong Xuebing insisted on the judgment that “electricity is only the basis, and intelligence is the stars and the sea”. He believes that in the future, those technology-based companies that can really help car companies to improve their intelligence level and give users a better car experience will have the opportunity to share the biggest dividend in the wave of new energy vehicles.
Chuangjin Hexin Fund Manager Assistant Xie Tianhui believes that new energy is a high-growth industry, and short-term fluctuations are normal. From a long-term perspective, the new energy track is still one of the industries with relatively large space and certainty in the entire A-share market, and the fundamentals and prosperity have not changed significantly.
“However, the industry is expected to be more differentiated, and the general rise may be unsustainable. It is necessary to focus on exploring leading stocks with better competitive landscape.” Xie Tianhui emphasized.
TEDA Manulife FundIt is believed that next year’s economic growth is still expected to become the main line of the market, and the allocation opportunities after the callback can be grasped. It is expected that the economic growth rate may fall back next year, all ANet profitThe growth rate may also drop sharply to near zero. The prosperity of new energy sectors such as electric vehicles and photovoltaics is still expected to continue, and high growth is commendable. At the same time, the Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for “steady growth.” It is expected that liquidity will remain loose, and there will still be opportunities for further performance in the economic growth sector, and the value of allocation will become more prominent after the phased callback.
Market style will tend to be balanced
Steady growth and carbon neutral lines are worthy of attention
Regarding the market outlook and investment opportunities, Ping An Fund predicts that in the short term, the market style tends to be balanced. With the successive implementation of the stable growth policy, it will continue to actively allocate the following sectors: stable growth lines, such as infrastructure chain, real estate chain, finance,food and drinkEtc.; military industry; automotive intelligence and parts; carbon neutral and carbon peak related industries, etc.
For next year’s market, Xie Yi said frankly that he is still relatively optimistic that a turning point in economic fundamentals will occur with a high probability, and the recovery will continue to unfold.The market shape and investment opportunities may be more abundant than this year, due tocurrencyThe difference in policies is likely to be better in China than overseas, and it is a year worth looking forward to for A-share investors.
TEDA Manulife Fund stated that the liquor sector is expected to be driven by price increases and has performed well, and it will follow up the progress of the price increase. From a medium-term perspective, the follow-up A shares are still dominated by structural opportunities. From the perspective of the credit cycle, the first half of next year will be in the stage of credit expansion, and the profit growth rate of all A shares is likely to gradually decline in the first half of next year. In the context of credit expansion and earnings decline, based on historical experience, it is expected that A-shares will be dominated by structural opportunities.
In terms of configuration, TEDA Manulife recommends a balanced configuration. In addition to the outstanding performance of electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and military industries, the business growth sector can focus on the construction of new power markets. At the same time, it is expected that after March next year, with the decline of the credit cycle base and the steady growth policy, it is expected that the value style will gradually become prominent, and the real estate chain transaction opportunities can be paid attention to.
Despite the recent intensified volatility, the segment of the new energy sector is still favored by many institutions and fund investors. China Asset Management said that overall, under the demand for capital gains at the end of the year, sectors with higher growth rates will have certain short-term adjustment pressures, but prosperity investment is a proven long-term and effective main-line investment logic. After the pressure is released, the new energy sector It is still one of the main lines that will be active again and again next year, and it is recommended to focus on it.
Tongtai Fund Manager Wang Wei believes that the trend of long-term penetration of new energy vehicles has not changed, and as various auto companies intensively launch new models, they remain optimistic about sales in the new year.
Secondly, with the increase in the supply of battery materials, there will not be a general rise similar to this year; more attention should be paid to stock selection and leading companies with alpha, which have the advantage of leading their peers on the cost side.
In addition to lithium batteries, Wang Wei said that other sub-sectors also have long-term opportunities and will maintain close attention. Specifically, for the wind power photovoltaic sector, the long-term direction is optimistic, but the short-term lack of catalysis; may need to wait for the landing of bidding orders and the clarity of the new year’s industrial chain price negotiation results. Photovoltaic needs to wait for the price of silicon materials to fall and the return of module prices to normal will bring about an increase in production scheduling. The arrival of these catalysis may not be far away.
(Source: China Fund News)
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