Circulation in Europe began to drop even before governments announced new restrictions, to contain yet another wave of Covid-19 and the rapid spread of the new Omicron variant. New cases are increasing every day day by day and the impact on hospitals in different countries is rapidly becoming unsustainable. There is therefore growing concern that the pandemic may also dominate this winter season, which is now upon us.
As you can see, come on Google mobility data (Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports), we had a steady increase in circulation until this summer, then the trend slowly started to turn to the downside starting in early September. In the main European countries, in the last three months we have been witnessing a decrease in travel to grocery stores, retail outlets and even to recreational activities. For the moment, however, traffic to jobs is holding up relatively well.
“Despite the slowdown in travel in recent months, mobility to date is comparable to that of the end of May 2021 and is greater than in the summer of 2020”, he remarks Bert Colijn, Senior Economist di Ing.
To evaluate the type of restrictions apply the economist of Ing uses the Government Response Stringency Index. It is an index from 0 to 100 created by the University of Oxford to understand the level of restrictions adopted in a country. In Italy in March 2020, the index reached 92 and then in April 94, a level never reached by other European countries. Over the same period, France peaked at 88, Spain by 85 and Germany by 75.
While some countries are still looking for alternative ways out to escape the new wave, many others such as Belgium, Austria, Holland and Germany are increasing restrictions due to the increase in infections in recent weeks.
More and more countries are registering new records in cases and it is therefore likely that further and more generalized more restrictive measures will be introduced shortly, destined to cause a slowdown in mobility in the Eurozone.
What to Expect?
Looking at the restrictive measures over time, they emerge drastic differences between the waves that have followed. The first wave saw very restrictive blocks which however lasted just over a month before the restrictions eased. In the second wave, the measures were more targeted but lasted much longer, averaging around four and a half months.
The first wave resulted in a steep 56% decline in mobility, while the second wave saw a decrease of just 37%, but this figure may be too optimistic as part of the impact was felt during the summer period when mobility would have been lower anyway. “If the new Omicron variant were to be particularly contagious and aggressive, a rapid return to the lockdowns seen during the first wave would not be excluded”, asserts Colijn who adds: “Thanks to vaccinations and the economy that adapts to the measures over time, it is It is plausible to think that the damages of this wave of Covid are milder than the last one, however, it will be necessary to monitor the evolution of the situation “.