(Original title: LPR interest rate remained unchanged in June, there is still room for downward adjustment in the third quarter)
News from our newspaper (Reporter Liu Yang) On June 20, the June LPR quotations released by the central bank remained unchanged month-on-month, of which LPRs for 1-year and more than 5-year periods remained unchanged at 3.7% and 4.45%, respectively. This is after the unexpected asymmetric reduction of 15 basis points in the LPR quotation for more than 5 years in May, the LPR quotation has remained unchanged again.
“The LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years has just dropped by 15 basis points in May, and its effect on the loan volume and price is obvious and sustainable. Therefore, it is not necessary to guide the LPR downward again this month.” Everbright Securities Fixed Income Chief analyst Zhang Xu analyzed that, “After the LPR fell in May, RMB loans in that month reversed from a year-on-year increase in April to an increase in one fell swoop. The significant and rapid impact of LPR changes in May on the total credit volume also reflects the Our monetary policy is strong and efficient.”
The LPR quotation is formed by adding points on the basis of the MLF interest rate. The MLF interest rate remained unchanged in June, which means that the pricing basis of the LPR quotation in the month did not change; in terms of adding points, the RRR cut was not implemented in May, and the credit issuance accelerated significantly. Therefore, no matter from the perspective of bank capital costs or the balance of supply and demand in the loan market, 6 The monthly quotation line lacks the motivation to lower the plus point.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, said that the macro data in May showed that consumption, investment and industrial production have all turned into a recovery process; since mid-June, new house transaction data in 30 large and medium-sized cities have shown signs of improvement. This means that the current focus is to implement the measures to stabilize growth and the property market, represented by the “33 articles of the National Standing Committee” and the “double drop” of mortgage interest rates. specific effects. During this period, the need for policy upgrades has declined.
In June, the LPR “stands still”, will there be any changes in the future?
“Looking a little longer, LPR will eventually go down, and its manifestation is likely to be the compression of LPR relative to the MLF interest rate increase rate, rather than the active decline of MLF interest rate. The cost of capital is one of the main determinants of the increase rate. This year The 1YLPR has not changed since January, but the bank’s capital cost has dropped a lot during this period.” Zhang Xu further judged that, for example, many banks have lowered the interest rates of time deposits and large-denomination certificates of deposit with a maturity of more than 1 year. The comprehensive RRR cut has directly saved financial institutions 6.5 billion yuan in capital costs each year. In the past three months, the interest rate of commercial bank certificates of deposit has also declined significantly. Quantitative changes lead to qualitative changes, and the stored force formed by the above changes is more likely to be reflected in the next stage of LPR. “
Wang Qing also predicts that there is still some room for downward adjustment in the future. “Specifically, in the second half of the year, while the MLF interest rate remains unchanged, the regulator can guide the bank’s capital cost to decline, and promote the reduction of LPR quotations, thereby reducing the loan interest rates of enterprises and residents. Under the cumulative effect, the LPR quotation in the third quarter may be The MLF interest rate will be lowered separately while the interest rate remains unchanged. This will be an effective measure to ‘take into account internal and external balance’ for a period of time in the future.”
It is worth noting that there are also views that under the resonance of pigs, grains and oil, the domestic inflation pressure will increase significantly in the second half of the year, which may limit monetary easing at the margin. Therefore, even if the domestic interest rate cut window is not completely closed, there is already less room.