SMEsAs one of the leading indicators of macroeconomic trends, it has received extensive attention from all parties in the market.
On June 30, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the operation of China’s Purchasing Managers Index in June 2021. Data show that in June, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.9%, 53.5%, and 52.9%, respectively, down 0.1, 1.7, and 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, but both Continue to be above the critical point, 12 of the 15 major manufacturing industries are above the line of prosperity and decline, and 5 of the 11 non-manufacturing industries are below the line of prosperity and decline. my country’s economic operation continues to expand.
The effect of the “guaranteed supply and stable price” policy appears
Data show that in June, the manufacturing production index was 51.9%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month.
Investigating the reason, Chen Li, chief economist and research institute director of Chuancai Securities, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that as the peak summer comes, coal, coal,Power IndustrySupply ushered in seasonal tightness, and some manufacturing enterprises faced a “core shortage” in their production during the superimposed month, and the pace of manufacturing production expansion slowed down.
“The manufacturing production index in June was the lowest point since the epidemic improved.”Bank of CommunicationsChief researcher Tang Jianwei told the “Securities Daily” reporter that since June, the overall expansion of industrial production has slowed down from the previous month, and the year-on-year trend has become weaker. The average operating rate of blast furnaces in June was 61.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from May. On the one hand, the demand side recovers slowly, and the impact on the production side is gradually showing. On the other hand, some industries have recently been affected by factors such as raw materials, coal, power supply shortages, and chip shortages, which have slowed down production progress.
It is worth noting that since mid-May, after the State Council’s executive meeting four times “named” commodities, the recent series of “guaranteed supply and stable prices” policies have been effective, and the rapid rise in manufacturing prices has been initially curbed. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials both changed from rising to falling in June, which were 61.2% and 51.4%, respectively, which were 11.6 and 9.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Judging from the purchase price index of major raw materials, with the exception of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries, which continued to climb, other industries all declined significantly.
Tang Jianwei believes that the domestic commodity price index has weakened. From the perspective of the prices of the main means of production in the circulation field since the beginning of June, the types of price increase accounted for 52%, the types of price declines accounted for 38%, and the prices were basically the same at about 10%. The overall momentum continued to rise, but the proportion of types of price declines was obvious. increase. The price increase at both ends of the supply and demand of the industrial industry has weakened, and it is expected that the pressure of the rapid rise in industrial product prices will ease.
In addition, the performance of the consumer goods manufacturing index is one of the highlights of the data released this time. In June, the consumer goods manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month high, 52.2%, 1.6 percentage points higher than the previous month. Among them, the production index and the new order index were 53.9% and 54.6%, respectively, 1.0 and 3.5 percentage points higher than last month, and industry production and demand expansion accelerated.
“The PMI of the consumer goods manufacturing industry rose to the highest point in the past five months, mainly driven by the promotion activities in the ‘618’ year.” Kang Chongli, the head of the Yuekai Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily. According to historical data From a point of view, the online retail sales of physical goods grew at 21%, 20%, and 22% in June from 2018 to 2020, respectively, and grew by 38% and 47% in November from 2018 to 2020, respectively. , 33%, affected by the “618” and “Double Eleven”, each June and November are basically the two peaks of online retail sales throughout the year, driving the PMI of the consumer goods manufacturing industry to rise rapidly.
Xu Weihong, chief economist of Yongxing Securities, analyzed the reasons why the consumer goods manufacturing PMI rose to a high in the past five months from another dimension. He told the “Securities Daily” reporter that the global economic recovery has continued unabated. With the continuous increase of vaccination coverage in developed countries, the recovery of global consumption has continued. Correspondingly, the growth rate of China’s foreign trade exports has been very high, which in turn drives the boom in the consumer goods manufacturing industry under the “two-wheel drive” of domestic and foreign demand.
The construction industry has been in the high boom zone for two consecutive months
Judging from the non-manufacturing business activity index, in June, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.5%, 1.7 percentage points lower than the previous month. The non-manufacturing industry continued its expansion trend, but the expansion was weakened.
The service industry maintains a recovery trend. Affected by local epidemics in individual regions and other factors, the business activity index of the service industry fell to 52.3%, 2.0 percentage points lower than last month, but still above the threshold, indicating that the service industry has steadily recovered.
It is worth mentioning that the construction industry is operating steadily in the high-level business range. The business activity index of the construction industry was 60.1%, which was the same as last month, and was in the high-level business range for two consecutive months. The construction industry maintained rapid growth.
Tang Jianwei believes that the construction industry maintains high production vitality. In addition to the construction business activity index of 60.1%, the business activity expectation index in June was 63.2%, which was above 60% for five consecutive months.real estateThe investment resilience is related to the expected increase in infrastructure investment. In addition, the input price index of the construction industry in June fell sharply by 21.9 percentage points to 51.7%, which was the lowest point in the past nine months. The pressure of rising construction costs has eased, which has a positive effect on the production of the construction industry.
In fact, PMI and sub-data are basically in line with the revenue and profit indicators of listed companies in the industry.Take the construction industry as an example. As of the press release on June 30, 6 listed companies related to the construction industry have disclosed interim reports.PerformanceAccording to the forecast, the performance of 5 companies is expected to be happy, and the performance of 1 company is “uncertain”.
“It is expected that the manufacturing industry will continue to operate in the expansion range, and the recovery momentum will decline. With the impact of the local epidemic under control and the increase in vaccination rates, domestic demand will continue to shift to the consumer side in the second half of the year, and overseas demand will continue to be repaired in the second half of the year. There is a high probability that the industry will continue to recover.” Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Securities, told a reporter from the Securities Daily, but the marginal decline in export demand as the overseas supply and demand gap is closed, and the cost pressure of enterprises still exists under supply constraints, and there is room for midstream and downstream profits to be repaired. Limited, the manufacturing PMI is likely to continue to be in the expansion range, but the recovery momentum tends to fall.
Xu Weihong said that on the one hand, the global economy is in the process of recovery, and China’s domestic demand recovers two to three quarters ahead of external demand. Therefore, as a “world manufacturing factory”, China’s overall economy has recovered well; on the other hand, commodity prices have risen. The influence continues,PPIThe process of transmission from high-level operations to the manufacturing industry has not yet ended. Therefore, while companies are replenishing inventories, they still lack the willingness to accelerate investment expansion in stages.currencyThere is a trend of policy tightening, which will cause the overall PMI index to fall slightly.
(Source: Securities Daily)
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