MILANO – Once the Italian PNRR has been sent to Brussels, the government returns to focus on the aspects more directly linked to the health emergency and to businesses still in difficulty due to the closures of recent months. If the financial markets look at the SME indices that anticipate the economic trend – in particular those on manufacturing are already published on Monday, then Wednesday will be the turn of services – to understand how strong the recovery is, the Italian executive is in the final rush for the writing of the decree Businesses or Support bis, which the Council of Ministers aims to address next Thursday. On the table there are the 40 billion of the new budget variance, which will be used to give the new aid with the calculation of the fixed costs incurred, while the ‘old’ Sostegni must complete his parliamentary process.
The Belpaese returns to the test of rating agencies: on Friday it’s up to Moody’s to express the report card on Italy, after S&P and Dbrs have substantially confirmed their positions pending the unfolding of the next steps and the full recovery fund. The agency on November 6, 2020 left the rating unchanged at Baa3 (just one notch from the high yield or junk segment) with a stable outlook. Continue while the quarterly season with in the foreground – among others – the accounts of Mps, Intesa SanPaolo, Banco Bpm, Ferrari, Leonardo and Enel. Overseas there is expectation for Pfizer, Moderna, General Motors and Uber.
It then remains ‘hot’ on Alitalia folder, with the vice president of the EU Commission, Margrethe Vestager, who said she was waiting for a new proposal from Italy. “It must be demonstrated that the launch of Ita will be an investment that will bear fruit and that private investors will accept, and therefore that it will not take support (public, ed). It depends on Italy to make a new proposal on this issue that will allow us to verify the necessary criteria “, explained Vestager, during a press conference. And then he encouraged everyone” to work together “. on Monday and Tuesday the payment of their overdue salaries in two installments.
Staying in the Eurozone, Thursday there ECB releases its economic bulletin which could give indications on the expectations of economic recovery, even if the last meeting of the Eurotower Board was interlocutory and the update of the macro estimates is expected only in June.
On the other hand, the data that will come from the United States is important, where the economic recovery is at a more advanced stage. In fact, Friday will be released the US Department of Labor report relative to the dynamics of employment in April: according to Bloomberg estimates it should have been another month of strong recovery (978 thousand more places are estimated, over 916 thousand in March). To support the optimism has recently arrived the data on the US GDP for the first quarter, which rose by 6.4% annualized thanks above all to the boost of the expenses of the Americans, who benefited from the checks distributed by the White House. However, we must not forget the starting point: the financial agency notes that even if the labor market had really grown by almost a million heads, there would still be 7 million below pre-pandemic levels: the road to full recovery is long . The growth forecasts coming from the Bank of England: for the country which, in the Old Continent, is ahead of all (and by detachment) on the vaccination campaign, this is an important test.
Here, in the agenda Acted, the main events of the week:
MONDAY 3 MAY
Recovery: web event ‘Recovery Pa: the bureaucratic transition in the Pnrr’, organized by AC Advocacy & Communication. With Maurizio Marchesini, vice president of Confindustria for supply chains and medium enterprises.
Cars: the MIT communicates the data relating to registrations in April.
Public accounts: Mef, April requirement.
Foreign trade: presentation of the XVIII Prometeia Ice Report.
Germany: retail sales, or March.
Italy: Final manufacturing SMEs, April.
France: Final manufacturing SMEs, April.
Germany: Final manufacturing PMI, April.
Eurozone: Final manufacturing PMI, April.
USA: Final manufacturing PMI, April.
USA: ISM manufacturing index, April.
US: construction spending, March.
Fed: discorso Jerome Powell al National Community Reinvestment Coalition.
TUESDAY 4 MAY
Pensions: Rome, webinar ‘Let’s change pensions’. With the general secretaries of CGIL, CISL and UIL, Maurizio Landini, Luigi Sbarra and Pierpaolo Bombardieri.
Alitalia: Senate, Public Works Commission, informal hearing of the president Francesco Caio and the CEO, Fabio Lazzerini, of Italia Transport Aereo on the preparation of the industrial plan.
Ports: Naples, presentation of the book ‘The future of Italian port systems’, by Pietro Spirito, organized by Luigi Vanvitelli University of Campania. With Vito Grassi, vice president of Confindustria and president of the Council of Regional Representations and for Territorial Cohesion Policies of Confindustria.
Waste: Rome, press conference to present the Anci-Conai Report on ‘Separate Collection and Recycling’. With the Minister of Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani; the president of the Anci National Council, Enzo Bianco; the delegate for Energy and Waste and the mayor of Lecce, Carlo Salvemini; the Conai president, Luca Ruini; the president of Anci and mayor of Bari, Antonio Decaro.
Work: Rome, social partners government table on social safety nets reform.
Gb: Final manufacturing SME, April.
ECB: Villeroy’s speech.
USA: trade balance, March.
USA: industrial orders, March.
USA: final durable goods orders, March.
Fed: Daly’s speech.
WEDNESDAY 5 MAY
Bank of Italy: Bank of Italy ‘Ita-coin’ statistics.
Alitalia: Rome, meeting between commissioners, trade unions and Ita.
Confindustria: Rome, the first virtual fair of the Higher Technical Institutes “Its pop days”, organized by Confindustria and Umana, in full online mode. With Patrizio Bianchi, Minister of Education; Giancarlo Giorgetti, Minister of Economic Development; Giovanni Brugnoli, Confindustria.
Innovation: Rome, online Luiss event, ‘Presentation of the Cotec-Bei Report, the digitalization of SMEs in Italy’. With Maria Cristina Messa, Minister of University and Research, Vittorio Colao, Minister for Technological Innovation and the Digital Transition.
Businesses: Luiss and Confindustria, on the initiative of the Advisory Board of Foreign Investors (Abie) of Confindustria, present ‘Foreign companies in Italy at the time of Covid: ideas for resilience’. With Vincenzo Boccia, president of Luiss Guido Carli; Barbara Beltrame Giacomello vice president of Confindustria; Giancarlo Giorgetti Minister of Economic Development.
Tourism: Milan, conference ‘Communicating tourism for recovery in Italy and Europe. The notoriety and attractiveness of Italian destinations and the role of the medià, organized by the Università Cattolica and Publitalià80. With Franco Anelli rector of the Catholic University; Massimo Garavaglia, Minister of Tourism; Bernabò Bocca, president of Federalberghi; Giorgio Palmucci, president of Enit.
Confedilizia: ApeConfedilizia Turin, webinar ‘Sismabonus: when it can be applied, as part of the webinar cycle to answer questions on the 110% superbonus.
Intesa San Paolo: conference call to present the Group’s financial results as at 31 March 2021. With the CEO Carlo Messina.
Poste: Rome, Luiss event ‘The European economy and the new post-pandemic normality – The Poste Italiane chair in’ European Economic Governance. With Matteo Del Fante, CEO of Poste Italiane; Romano Prodi, president of the Foundation for Cooperation among Peoples.
Confedilizia. catanzaro, webinar ‘Christianity and private property’. With Antonio Abate, president of Confedilizia Catanzaro, Giorgio Spaziani Testa, president of Confedilizia.
Italy: final services SMEs, April.
France: final services SMEs, April.
Germany: final services SMEs, April.
Eurozone: final services SMEs, April.
ECB: Lane speech.
Usa: new employees, Adp estimate.
Use: Markit Pmi final composite, April.
USA: Markit Pmi final services, April.
US: Composite non-manufacturing ISM index, April.
Fed: Evans speech.
Fed: Mester Virtual Forum.
THURSDAY 6 MAY
Confindustria: Rome, second day of the first virtual fair of the Higher Technical Institutes ‘Its Pop Days’, organized by Confindustria and Umana. With Pierangelo Albini, Confindustria; Giuseppe Venier, Human; Francesca Puglisi, Ministry of Education.
Rome: online conference organized by the Municipality, Rinascente and Prelios for the launch of the remodeling project of the historic Rinascente in Rome, in Piazza Fiume.
CISL: Rome, webinar ‘A CISL proposal for the single and universal allowance to support dependent children’. With Elena Bonetti Minister for Equal Opportunities and the Family, Luigi Sbarra general secretary of the CISL, Gigi De Palo spokesperson for the Forum of Family Associations.
recovery: Milan, from the series of meetings organized by PwC Italia, conversation on the Recovery Plan entitled ‘The Plan’.
With the undersecretary of state, Vincenzo Amendola; Alessandro De Angelis, Deputy Director of HuffPost; Giovanni Andrea Toselli, president and CEO of PwC Italia.
Mps: conference call for the presentation of the first quarter results. With Guido Bastianini, CEO and General Manager and Giuseppe Sica, Chief Financial Officer.
Leonardo: presentation of first quarter results.
Enel: bod examines first quarter results.
Germany: orders to industry, March.
Gb: Pmi final services, April.
Gb: Boe, decision on rates and Qe.
Eurozone: retail sales, March.
ECB: publishes the Economic Bulletin.
ECB: Schnabel’s speech.
Use: grant applications, weekly.
USA: unit labor cost, first quarter preliminary.
Japan: BoJ publishes minutes of March meeting.
Fed: Kaplan’s speech.
Fed: Mester Virtual Forum.
Fed: publishes the Financial Stability Report.
FRIDAY 7 MAY
Istat: March retail sales.
Italia: rating Moody’s.
Guido Carli Award: Rome, the president of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi, receives the award on the occasion of the XII Edition.
Confindustria: the first virtual fair of the Higher Technical Institutes ‘Its pop days’, organized by Confindustria and Umana, ends.
Bank of Italy: Bank of Italy statistics, ‘Balance sheet aggregates’ and ‘Official reserves’.
ECB: Christine Lagarde’s speech at the 2021 State of the Union event.
Germany: industrial production, March.
Germany: trade balance, March.
France: industrial production, March.
Francia: rating Fitch.
Spain: industrial production, March.
USA: hourly wages, April.
USA: unemployment rate, April.
US: new non-farm employees, April.
China: Caixin Services SMEs, April.
China: trade balance, April.