“Reading economic data today is more complex, because some correlations from the past no longer seem to work, at least in the short term. The ability of the economy to continue growing depends in an important way on the trend of consumption and inflation: autumn will be the critical period to evaluate its resilience ”. Matteo Ramenghi, chief investment officer Ubs WM Italy, is of this opinion, in an in-depth study entitled “Slowdown or recession?”.
In particular, Ramenghi recalls that the challenge for central banks is to be able to calibrate rate hikes to contain inflation without pushing the economy into a recession. “In fact, every rate hike makes it more expensive to borrow money and therefore affects sectors that are very important for the economy such as, for example, the real estate sector with its related activities – explains the Ubs WM investment manager for Italy. -. For this reason, the most indebted economies such as the US and the UK could experience a faster deterioration ”.