Mazziero Research’s estimate of GDP in the fourth quarter is up to + 0.4% from -0.1% and the annual one goes from the previous + 6.1% to + 6.3%. Furthermore, it is not excluded that it is possible to increase by a few decimal places to 6.4 or 6.5%.
Now approaching mid-December, analysts say the Omicron variant proves less treacherous than previously thought. “Despite having a greater diffusion capacity, the effects appear to be lower than the previous variants with symptoms on the whole not serious and fewer recourses to intensive care. This does not mean that the virus circulates a lot in Europe and has begun to spread rapidly in Italy as well, but the vaccine contrast seems at the moment to put a stop to the most critical situations “. Finally, the sharp rise in prices remains one of the risks on consumer spending, but at the moment it does not seem to have a particular impact. Therefore, even if we contemplate a slightly lower pace of Christmas purchases, there should not be such impacts as to negatively affect GDP.