Summary
[Monarch’s strategy: face up to risks and plan to act afterwards]Affected by the mutant new crown virus Omicron, global financial markets have experienced shocks. At present, the core concern is that the mutation of the virus may lead to an increase in immune evasion and transmission capacity, which in turn will slow down the process of economic recovery. With reference to the delta virus’s deductive context after the end of June, its impact on A shares is similar to the “black swan” event, with the marginal impact gradually weakening, and the domestic market is more in line with endogenous logic. (Chen Xianshun Strategy Research)
General trend research and judgment: Pay attention to the risk of the epidemic, and there is no need to panic too much.Affected by the mutant new crown virus Omicron, global financial markets have experienced shocks. At present, the core concern is that the mutation of the virus may lead to an increase in immune evasion and transmission capacity, which in turn will slow down the process of economic recovery. With reference to the delta virus’s deductive context after the end of June, its impact on A shares is similar to the “black swan” event, with the marginal impact gradually weakening, and the domestic market is more in line with endogenous logic. In fact, since late October, the whole refers to the realization of “NikeThe trend of “type” first declines and then rises, and the turnover of the two cities has exceeded one trillion for 26 consecutive trading days. The market performance reflects that a new consensus is gradually brewing: 1) After the Q3 quarterly report, the profitability of listed companies is facing at least three quarters of zero growth Pressure, but the market has fully anticipated the decline in earnings; 2) the central bank in the third quartercurrencyThe policy implementation report tends to be pessimistic about the margin of economic setting. As policy attention shifts from risk prevention to stable growth, structural wide credit is expected to exert force. Taking into account the overseas chain of the epidemic, it may slow down the process of tightening global liquidity. Overall, the risk of this round of mutant viruses still needs to be dynamically observed, but given the domestic prevention and control experience and the historical interpretation of the epidemic, there is no need for excessive panic to impact the capital market.
Style analysis: looking for certainty.In the middle of the economic recovery after the epidemic in 2021, the core style is high profitability, and the differentiation of styles mainly settles in the large, medium and small caps.Among them, since the beginning of the year, the annual growth rates of the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and China Securities 2000 Index have all exceeded 10%. Correspondingly,SSE 50、CSI 300Dropped over 5%. Looking ahead, the kinetic energy of traditional economic pillars represented by real estate and exports has slowed down, but the new economic kinetic energy mechanism has not been straightened out. This means that the degree of uncertainty will increase in the future from the macro economy to the profitability of micro enterprises. Under the background that risk appetite continues to be at a relatively low level, the research and judgment of risk evaluation is more important than risk appetite. Under the “economic downturn + easing restraint”, the investment perspective has more important requirements for profit certainty.
Financial real estate: also offensive and defensive.Since the second half of 2021, affected by the supervision of pre-sale funds and the Evergrande incident, the performance of the financial and real estate sector has been weak. The crux of the current real estate industry is that highly leveraged real estate companies face the risk of redemption, and the direct financing policy for real estate companies is a policy to prevent a hard landing in the industry. With the easing of financing for real estate enterprises and the acceleration of mortgage loans for residents, the industry’s negative feedback expectations are expected to be broken. In fact, data from the central bank showed that at the end of October 2021, the balance of personal housing loans was 37.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 348.1 billion yuan that month, an increase of 101.3 billion yuan over September. At the same time, the stock of social financing in October increased by 10% year-on-year, which was the same as in September. The “credit bottom” was gradually confirmed, and the financial real estate sector ushered in an opportunity for valuation restoration.
Industry configuration: high prosperity and low valuation go hand in hand.Continue to be optimistic about the high-prosperity track and the financial sector with low valuations, and orderly layout the consumption style switching. 1)Consumer ElectronicsContoured Prosperity Track: The high prosperous direction is still scarce, and the focus is on the meta-universe equipment side and other directions. 2) Financial real estate: Real estate pessimism is gradually eased, driving the rebound of low-value sectors such as financial real estate; fundamentally,BrokerageBankThere are also dazzling performances. 3) Continue to be optimistic about consumption switching: gradually move to the bottom of expectations, recommendedPerformanceSupported liquor, live pig, dairy,car partsAnd other high cost-effective sectors.
(Source: Research on Chen Xianshun’s Strategy)
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