Moutai has returned to the 2000 yuan mark. “Milk grass,” “duty free grass,” and “soy sauce grass” all rose to the top of the list. Has the year-end big consumption market come?
The big blue-chip consumer, who has been silent for almost a year, has recently regained a new lease of life.
On Wednesday, “Mao Clan Benmao” Kweichow Moutai surged 4.45%, and its stock price returned to above 2,000 yuan, and led the industry leaders in various sub-sectors to collectively attack. “Milk grass”, “duty free grass”, “Medicine grass”, “Soy sauce grass”…These “blue chips” that have faded out of investors’ vision before collectively rushed to the top of the rising list.
Yesterday, the big blue chips made a slight correction (Moutai closed slightly up by 0.17%), but this did not hinder the strong performance of this period, and even top-tier fund managers called out: The “valuation return” of the consumer sector will dominate 2022 A-share market.
Feng Shui turns to consumer stocks to stage “Return of the King”
Unknowingly, the “share king” Kweichow Moutai is back. As a “value benchmark” for the traditional A-share consumer blue chip, if calculated from the interim low of RMB 1525.5 per share set on August 20, the A-share “market value brother” has rebounded by more than 30%.
Since the beginning of this year, the trend of liquor stocks has been very sluggish. The former fund “group stocks” and “the strongest track” have become “blue chips” that no one cares about. Especially under the dazzling light of new energy upstarts such as Ningde era and BYD, the former “stock king” appears even more dim. As the “one brother on the ChiNext” has reached the top three in total market value (1.5 trillion yuan) in the Ningde era, the position of “share king” is in jeopardy.
However, with the advent of the traditional consumption peak season at the end of the year, major consumer industries including liquor stocks have regained a new life, and relatively low valuations have also attracted the layout of many institutions. At the end of November, Goldman Sachs, a well-known Wall Street investment bank, resumed tracking the A-share liquor industry. Among them, Goldman Sachs resumed tracking the purchase of Kweichow Moutai Ratings, with a target price of 2,101 yuan/share; resumed tracking Luzhou Laojiao’s neutral rating with a target price of 245.47 yuan/share; resumed tracking Wuliangye’s rating to buy with a target price of 252 yuan/share; given to the alcoholic The initial rating of wine-neutral, the target price is 200 yuan/share.
From the actual results, in recent days, many institutional funds, including Northbound funds, are indeed actively deploying consumer blue chips, and various “star funds” that have fluctuated at the beginning of the year have also quickly returned to blood. Take the E Fund’s blue-chip fund managed by Zhang Kun as an example. The fund continued to rise by more than 2% on Thursday after a surge of 2.28% on Wednesday. The E Fund Premium Selection, which was renamed from E Fund’s small and medium caps, is still suspended from buying, and many Christians urged: “Kun brother, open the door!”
Like Zhang Kun, Liu Yanchun, who is also a billionaire, also benefited a lot from the consumption market at the end of the year. After successive increases in the net value of funds, Liu Yanchun said: “From a global perspective, the investment side that lags behind the recovery of consumption is expected to gradually return to normal. It is expected that broad credit, stable growth, and boosting domestic demand will be the policy priorities for next year. Companies that have been mispriced due to business fluctuations will be the focus of the next phase of the layout.”
In fact, the phenomenon of A-share “consumption recovery” can be seen almost everywhere in recent times. “Milmao” Yili Co., Ltd. announced the “Report on the Issuance of Non-public A Shares in 2021” the night before, disclosing the latest progress of the fixed increase. The announcement disclosed that many institutions including Ping An Pension, Wells Fargo Fund, Guangfa Fund, Ruiyuan Fund, etc. participated enthusiastically in the fixed-increasing quotation. Among them, a total of 22 institutions and individuals have successfully been allocated this fixed increase, including top-tier institutions such as UBS Bank, Junhe Tongqian, and Zhongtai Securities Asset Management. Of course, the trend of Yili shares in recent days has also been relatively strong, with the stock price rising by 5.99% this week.
Consumer stocks will continue to be strong
Is the New Year’s Eve market formed?
“Consumer stocks are mainly derived from the advance layout of the Spring Festival peak season in February of the following year.” GF Competitive Advantage Fund Manager Miao Yu pointed out that for Chinese people, the Spring Festival is the most important time for visiting relatives and friends, giving thanks for business, and connecting feelings. The window is also the most rigid scenario for consumption upgrades, and it also has a strong guiding significance for the prosperity of the year. “Therefore, the Spring Festival is one of the best time windows for observing consumption, including observation and perception of industry trends. Many new consumer products were widely spread during the Spring Festival and became the hot products of the year.”
In fact, there are not a few institutional investors who are optimistic about the consumption market at the end of the year. Wu Yue, director of consumer research and fund manager of Harvest University, believes that the current consumer investment is at the left-hand stage, but the bottom has already been seen. The time for the reversal is likely to be around the Spring Festival. Compared with this year, the investment opportunities in the consumer sector in the first half of next year are worth looking forward to. Wu Yue pointed out that from a structural point of view, next year’s consumption market may come from mandatory consumption, with the two major tracks of food and agriculture being the core directions. However, next year’s consumer market is different from the previous leading white horse stocks. The biggest offensive direction may come from the second and third-tier small and medium-sized market capitalization companies in mandatory consumption.
Yang Jianhua, deputy general manager of Great Wall Fund, further pointed out that the Spring Festival consumer market still needs to consider the epidemic factor. “From the listed companies we surveyed, the operating data of these consumer companies at the beginning of next year are worth looking forward to. If there are no other systemic risks in the market, the probability of getting a good start next year is relatively high.”