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Original title Nomura Securities: A-share “policy bottom” approaching
Source Morning News
Author Cao Xijing
Dr. Ting Gao, head of the research department of Nomura Orient International Securities, said in Shanghai that the CSI 300 operating income growth rate in 2022/2023 is expected to be 2.6% and 6.9%, respectively; the net profit growth rate will be 6.8% and 9.7%, and it will be The end of the yearCSI 300 IndexThe target is set at 5500 points (14 times static P/E ratio). Gao Ting and his strategy research team believe that the market environment in the first quarter of next year is positive, and it is recommended to focus on optional consumption, new energy infrastructure and financial industries.
According to the Gao Ting team, the five major investment themes in the market in 2022 are:
1. Investment opportunities under economic cyclical changes are mainly consumer stocks under the background of rising consumption and narrowing of the CPI-PPI scissors; 2. Increased demand for the allocation of wealth management funds of over-the-counter banks; 3. New energy under the adjustment of the dual-carbon policy direction Construction is accelerated; 4. The post-epidemic consumer technology integration will bring demand resonance to technology and consumer sub-sectors from the demand side; 5. The Common Wealth Policy reshapes the valuation and stock selection framework from the industry and corporate levels.
These opportunities will mainly focus on consumer and technology segmented growth industries, including consumer manufacturing, consumer electronics, new entertainment, automotive and wearable intelligence, power transmission and distribution equipment, power construction contracting, new energy power station operation, wind and solar nuclear and other non-thermal power Construction field.
“2021 is the first year that the global economy will gradually get rid of the impact of the new crown epidemic. China, which was successful in fighting the epidemic earlier, began to slow down significantly after experiencing the previous period of strong economic growth. The weakening of corporate earnings growth has also dragged down the performance of the A-share market. We believe that for a long time to come, balancing the long and short (that is, the balance between long-term development goals and short-term economic growth) is the new normal of China’s economy and macroeconomic policies. From this perspective, the current economic pressures facing China will make future policy focus Tilt towards stable growth and provide support for economic growth and A-share performance in 2022.”
According to Gao Ting’s analysis, recent signs of fine-tuning of policies in the direction of easing indicate that the A-share “policy bottom” is approaching. Nomura’s macro team predicts that the economic growth rate in the spring of 2022 is expected to bottom out. With the reversal of downward fundamental expectations, industries that are highly correlated with economic performance and stabilizing growth policies are expected to achieve excess returns, of which optional consumption, new energy infrastructure and financial industries are most concerned.
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