Once upon a time there were the Piigs, the peripheral countries of the euro area
Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. The ballast of the euro area, the possible epicenters of an implosion of the single currency. Aid programs and the intervention of the Troika (IMF, ECB and European Commission) have been launched for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, while Spain has received aid for 40 billion euros to support the banks. Italy was commissioned by the Monti government.
Since the start of the sovereign debt crisis in the spring of 2011, the situation has changed a lot, and for the better, thanks above all to the ECB policy decided by Mario Draghi after the famous phrase “whatever it takes” (“The ECB will do whatever it takes to safeguard the euro. And believe me, that will be enough”). Almost ten years after Draghi’s words, the situation has completely reversed. The old Piigs have taken the lead in the convoy as France and Germany struggle: remember the pitying smile between Nicolas Sarkozy e Angela Merkel against Berlusconi?
Now the situation is as follows
This year Italy will grow more than France and Germany: our GDP will rise by 1.2% against 0.2 in Germany and 0.7% in France. For next year instead the estimates see a growth of 1.1 for Italy against 1.4% for Germany and France. This is what emerges from the spring economic forecasts presented today by the European Commission.
For Spain, the expansion rate is 1.9% in 2023, well above the EU average, thanks to the implementation of the recovery and resilience plan and a very strong labor market – writes the Commission -. The country’s economy is set to expand further, by 2%, in 2024, driven by consumption and investment. Portugal is seen at +1.5% while for the next two years the estimated increase reaches 2%.
Inflation pushes harder in Germany
According to the European Commissionthe growth of prices for Italy will settle in 2023 at a level of 6.1%an improvement compared to +8.7% in 2022. This is one of the highest data among the large economies of the Eurozone. Worse than Italy only Germany which would see inflation fall to only 6.8%. With the concrete risk that the Germans will not give in to the proposal to loosen the links of the stanility pact. On the contrary.
Germany’s difficulties are linked, largely to political reasons resulting from the war in Ukraine and tensions with China. The German industrial model that has allowed the growth of these years has gone into crisis.
The system was based on supplies of cheap gas from Russia
The finished products, starting with the cars, were sold in China. This explains the slowness with which Germany has followed the US which has banned both Moscow and Beijing.
Berlin paid the highest price with a twist that Washington does not mind. After all, the US was forced to fight two world wars to prevent Germany from dominating Europe.
And now there is the challenge of the Pnrr. Waiting for the third tranche of 19 billion
This is a great opportunity for Italy. Provided that the money is well spent, triggering a positive cycle of growth and development. On the third installment of 19 billion euros of the Recovery Funduseful for financing the national recovery plan (Pnrr), “we are working” as assured by the commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, on the sidelines of the press conference to present the spring economic forecasts.
With the Italian government “we are finalizing some aspects, there is good collaboration” he added. And the goal is to “quickly” resolve the payment issue. “More than on the third installment, however, I would concentrate on updating the plan” has explained. Topic of great interest for the government and also for Italian companies. “The commission is very ready and flexible and is just waiting to be able to get to work with the Italian authorities” concluded Gentiloni explaining that “Italy’s problem is how to continue on the positive course that has led the national economy to grow by 12% in three years”