The global oil demand should grow by 2.4 mb/d in 2023after an upward revision of approximately 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment, mainly due to the increased demand observed in China in the second quarter of 2023. This is what the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) claims in its Monthly Oil Market Report, the monthly document that analyzes market trends.
L’area OECD America is revised slightly upwards to account for a better-than-expected performance in the United States in the second quarter of 2023. Similarly, the area OECD Europe is slightly revised upwards in the first quarter of 2023. Also in the non-OECD countriesdemand has been revised upwards to account for the bullish oil demand observed in China in the second quarter of 2023 and a slight improvement in Latin America over the same period.
The world demand
For the 2024OPEC expects global oil demand will grow by as much as 2.2 mb/d, reaching about 104.25 mb/d. OECD is expected to expand by 0.26 mb/d, with OECD Americas contributing the largest increase. The non-OECD area is set to lead the growth, increasing by nearly 2.0 mb/d, with China, the Middle East and other Asian countries accounting for the bulk of this growth, with further support from India, Latin America and Africa.
L’offer Non-OPEC liquids are expected to increase by 1.4 mb/d in 2023, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquid supply growth for 2023 are expected to be the United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected mainly in Russia.
The uncertainties
they remain”uncertainties relating to the production potential of US shale oil and to unplanned maintenance in 2023,” reads the report. For 2024, non-OPEC liquids production is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers for liquid supply growth are expected to be the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan, while the largest declines are expected in Mexico and Azerbaijan.
At the basis of the forecasts there are estimates, unchanged, for one world economic growth at 2.6% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. US economic growth for 2023 is revised slightly upwards to 1.4%, followed by 0.7% for 2024. Eurozone economic growth for 2023 is revised slightly downwards to stand at 0.7%, while growth in 2024 is forecast at 0.8%. (Ticker)