Paper and Light Industry Weekly: The restoration of both ends of real estate supply and demand is expected to accelerate the improvement of household consumption demand; papermaking: the impact of wood pulp supply continues to increase prices, pay attention to high-quality track segment leaders and companies with sufficient self-provided pulp_Oriental Fortune Network

Investment tips for this issue:

1) The government work report of the two sessions is proposed for 2022GDP 5.5% growth rate target, continue to emphasize the protection of housing needs of the masses, etc., the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the peopleBankJointly issued a document to meet the requirements of new citizens to buy a house reasonablycreditDemand, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of the supply and demand in the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, which is expected to drive the demand for household consumption to improve.The Government Work Report of the Fifth Session of the Thirteenth National People’s Congress, 2022gross domestic productThe expected target growth is about 5.5%, which is a medium-to-high-speed growth on a high base. According to the calculation of Shenwan Real Estate Group, the proportion of GDP driven by real estate and industrial chains falls within the range of (21.4%, 30.2%), which means that the importance of stabilizing real estate this year ; Continue to ensure the housing needs of the masses, adhere to the positioning of homeowners not to speculate, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and stabilize land prices and stability.house price, stabilizing expectations, city-specific policies to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry means that this year the government will be committed to meeting reasonable housing needs, and will also further promote the construction of new urbanization with people as the core, and cooperate with the introduction of new citizen support policies.CBIRC, PeopleBankJointly issued a document, proposing to “meet the reasonable needs of new citizens for home purchase credit, and reasonably meet their home purchase credit needs for new citizens who meet the requirements of the home purchase policy, have the ability to purchase houses, and have relatively stable income”, which is expected to promote more cities in the future to follow up on rigid needs and demand changes. support policies to release potential housing demand and help the recovery of the demand-side prosperity. The follow-up is expected to drive the demand for the post-cycle industrial chain of real estate including home furnishing to improve.Home furnishing companies have recently launched employee and dealer stock ownership plans, equity incentive plans, or increasedrepo, demonstrating confidence in long-term sustainable growth. March 3 【Gujia Home Furnishing]Released the second phase of the dealership increase plan. Some dealers plan to increase their holdings of the company’s stock by 100-200 million yuan within 6 months from March 5th. 【Man Wah Holdings]Intensified repurchase efforts, repurchasing 5 million shares on February 28 (repurchase amount of 45.37 million Hong Kong dollars), and repurchasing 1.49 million shares on March 1 (repurchase amount of 14.36 million Hong Kong dollars). February【Oppai Home Furnishing]Released the first phase of the outstanding employee stock ownership plan, covering no more than 230 employees (no more than 7 directors, supervisors and senior executives) and a total capital of no more than 70 million yuan.Zhibang Home FurnishingFrom 2.23 to 3.3, the repurchase plan was completed (3.12 million shares were repurchased, and the repurchase amount was 88.05 million yuan),Gold kitchen cabinetIn January, the equity incentive plan was released,happy doorEquity incentives and employee stock ownership to be released by the end of 2021. Home furnishing companies have successively released employee and dealer stock ownership plans, equity incentive plans, or increased buybacks, fully demonstrating the company’s confidence in long-term sustainable growth, while strengthening the bond with the interests of employees, dealers and the company. The 315 activities of home furnishing companies have been launched one after another. The leading companies mainly focus on whole-house and whole-house packages to meet the one-stop consumption needs of consumers. It also announces that the industry is gradually upgrading from the era of single-category competition to the era of whole-house marketing. The most cost-effective package plan, as a diversion tool, helps to greatly increase the customer value; but it also tests the company’s plan design, product pricing, efficient production efficiency of self-made products, and the ability to build and integrate external supply chains. The service operation complexity of the terminal channel has also been greatly improved, including the understanding of the whole house product system and the ability to integrate the delivery service delivery. Companies with strong supply chain integration and channel service delivery capabilities will grab more market share in the future whole-home competition.

2) Papermaking: The price of wood pulp continues to rise, driving up the prices of pulp and paper types. In this round of the market, the subdivided high-quality track leaders with good supply and demand and competition pattern that can continue to transmit cost pressure, such as[Huawang Technology]etc.; and paper mills with sufficient self-produced wood pulp capacity, such as[Sun Paper】Wait. The supply of wood pulp has contracted in the short term, and the price has continued to rise, showing a relatively strong performance. Affected by the previous heavy rain and debris flow in Canada and the strike of UPM in overseas pulp mills on January 1, 2022, the price of wood pulp has rebounded since November 21. November rose 25%/18%, inner disk softwood/broadleaf offers rose 36%/28%. The price of pulp in the external disk continues to rise, and the price of pulp continues to remain strong mainly due to the contraction of the supply side. It is expected that under the combined influence, the short-term import supply of domestic wood pulp will decline by nearly 10%: 1) UPM’s commercial pulp production capacity is 1.3-1.4 million tons , the strike time was extended again to April 2, and the monthly pulp supply decreased by about 100,000-120,000 tons, accounting for about 4% of the domestic monthly pulp import volume; 2) Canada due to transportation problems, China’s importable volume decreased, and Canada’s supply About 27% of China’s imported softwood pulp is shipped to China over 200,000 tons per month. Due to transportation problems, the shipment volume has declined by about 20%-25%. 3) Due to the impact of the epidemic on logistics, there have been delays in delivery and low inventory in many overseas regions. The price of pulp in Europe and the United States is significantly higher than that in China. Brazil has increased shipments of hardwood pulp to Europe and the United States, and Brazil’s normal monthly shipment of wood pulp to China is about 55- 600,000 tons, monthly shipments fell by about 25% after supply to China contracted. The supply and demand relationship and competition pattern of the decorative base paper industry in the special paper subdivision track are good, and it is expected to continue to transmit cost pressure, and the leader is expected to maintain a relatively stable profit. The medium and high-end products in the decorative base paper industry account for about 45%, the penetration rate continues to increase, and the demand is improving. The new production capacity in 2022 is limited, and the supply and demand relationship is good. The market share of the two companies in the middle and high-end decorative base paper is about 80%. The competition pattern is stable, and it is difficult for the industry to experience price war disturbances. 【Huawang Technology]Occupy the leading position of mid-to-high-end decorative base paper, with high added value of products and strong bargaining power; due to the increase in pulp prices, the company has raised prices by 300-500 yuan / ton in February to achieve smooth cost transmission and continue to maintain strong profitability Capacity, the second production line of the 2022Q1 fundraising project will be put into operation with a production capacity of 50,000-60,000 tons to build growth in 2022.

Risk warning: repeated epidemics, sluggish overall demand, fluctuations in real estate policies, fluctuations in raw materials and prices.

(Article source: Shanghai Shenyin Wanguosecuritiesgraduate School)

Article source: Shanghai Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Research Institute

Responsible editor: 6

Original title: Paper and Light Industry Weekly: The restoration of both ends of real estate supply and demand is expected to accelerate the improvement of household consumption demand; papermaking: the impact of wood pulp supply continues to increase prices, pay attention to high-quality track segment leaders and companies with sufficient self-provided pulp