PetroChina has become “the most beautiful boy”? H shares are about to double during the year, oil prices are still rising momentum

The Financial Associated Press reported on October 6 that recently domestic and international oil and natural gas prices have risen sharply. On Tuesday, Brent oil prices stood at the $80 mark, hitting a three-year high, and U.S. oil hit a seven-year high. Today, European natural gas futures prices rose 22%, setting a new record high. The price of natural gas in the UK has risen by 37% in recent months, breaking through 400 pence.

On the news, OPEC+ representatives recently stated that OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee recommended that OPEC continue to increase production as originally planned, that is, increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month. It is much lower than the 800,000 barrels per day previously estimated by the agency.

Global natural gas prices have risen: on the one hand, the low natural gas inventory situation since last winter has not been alleviated, and it is difficult to improve the supply of natural gas in the short term; on the other hand, the economic recovery of major global economies this year has brought energy demand growth.

Due to the global energy shortage and the latest OPEC+ meeting decided to continue to increase production as originally planned, it can be expected that the recent tightening of the global energy market will still be difficult to alleviate.

It is worth noting that the Hong Kong stock market today opened higher and lowered. As of the close, PetroChina, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation had outstanding performance, rising 4.28%, 3.06%, and 2.34% respectively.

Since the beginning of this year, the share price of PetroChina has risen from HK$2.137/share to HK$4.14/share, a cumulative increase of 93.73%, which can be called the “most beautiful boy” in the Hong Kong stock market this year.

In addition, PetroChina’s share price performance for A-shares is equally dazzling. As of the close of the market on September 30, the cumulative increase this year has reached 52.93%.

The mismatch of natural gas supply and demand, oil prices may still rise further

Soochow Securities said that it believes that this round of oil prices will not fall back soon after breaking through 80 U.S. dollars. An indicator worth paying attention to is the inventory status of the global crude oil market. This indicator is currently at a low level over the same period in 5 years. If the indicator falls further in the future Exploration, oil prices are still likely to rise further.

Guojin Securities believes that the demand for natural gas is growing rigidly and on the supply side. Under the background of the slow growth of shale gas in the United States and the weakening of associated gas production in the Middle East due to the reduction of OPEC crude oil production, the prosperity of natural gas may be better than the current one. The market expects to be much longer.

Everbright Securities pointed out that since 2021, the CIF price of my country’s imported LNG has continued to rise, which has driven my country’s natural gas price to rise all the way since March. On the demand side, under the background of carbon neutrality, my country’s coal-to-gas conversion process is accelerating, and the demand for natural gas is expected to grow rapidly. On the supply side, the dual energy consumption control policy has become more stringent. As a result, some liquid plants upstream of natural gas shut down for maintenance or reduce production, and the LNG market supply has been greatly reduced.

On the whole, the domestic natural gas industry is also showing a mismatch of supply and demand. Continue to be optimistic about the natural gas sector, recommend PetroChina and ENN, and recommend attention: Guanghui Energy, JOVO Energy, Kunlun Energy.