Piazza Affari sinks with the tax on the extra profits of the banks
Closure in deep red for Business Square, which also drags down the European lists. The Ftse Mib index closed with a loss of more than 2 percentage points at 27,947 points.
To sink the Milan Stock Exchange the surprise announcement last night of one tax on bank profits that, in recent months, the Minister of Economy Giorgetti he had denied. Yesterday evening, however, Deputy Prime Minister Salvini announced that the banks will pay a 40% tax on 2023 profits linked to the increase in interest rates wanted by the ECB. The reaction from Piazza Affari was immediate, with bank stocks such as Bper, Banco Bpm, Intesa, Unicredit and above all MPS slipping by an average of 8-10%, which just yesterday announced the possibility of a return to the dividend. All canceled by this surprise maneuver which, apart from Spain, has no equal in Europe.
JP Morgan: We will review our positions on Italy
The reaction of the investment houses was immediate, with JP Morgan announcing a review of its positions in Italy, for a taxation that could reach almost 5 billion euros and not the 2 billion announced by the government.
“Our estimates on the cumulative impact” of the tax on extra profits on the main Italian banks “indicate 4.9 billion”. The analysts of Jefferies, noting that the executive “could soften the final version of the law, which has yet to pass parliamentary approval.” Analysts also point out that the revision of the thresholds for calculating the tax base compared to the initial rumors “is a marginally positive development”.
In any case, the cumulative capital impact on Cet 1 according to Jefferies would be equal to 60 basis points, “considerable, but manageable in a context of high capital ratios in the sector”. In particular, the impact would range from 340 basis points per Finecobank (which has a 23% Cet 1), at 30 basis points per Mediobanca.
As for Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit, then, ‘the impact is estimated at between 50 and 70 basis points on the total interest margin and will also depend on the geographical perimeter to which the government will apply the tax’. As for the effect on earnings, according to Jefferies it can be calculated on average at 24% of the 2023 consensus, with the worst situation for Bperaffected by 46% of the expected result for the full year also due to the “acquisitions that had a positive impact on the interest margin’.
As for the other institutes, the impact would be 35% of the expected profit for 2023 for weat 29% for bpm bankto 28% for the People of Sondrioat 26% for Finecobankat 26% for Intesa Sanpaoloat 24% for general bank, at 18% per UniCredit and 15% for Mediobanca.