Every reporter: Li Keyu Every editor: Chen Xing
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the operation of China’s Purchasing Managers Index in December 2021. In December 2021, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from November, which was higher than the threshold, and the manufacturing industry’s prosperity level continued to rebound.
Xinhua News Agency
The “Daily Business News” reporter noted that this is the second consecutive month of recovery in PMI.
At the same time, the data also shows that in December 2021, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 52.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from November; the composite PMI output index was 52.2%, the same as the previous month, and the three major indexes were all in the expansion range. .
Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the data show that the overall economy of our country has maintained a recovery trend, and the level of prosperity has recovered steadily.
Enterprise cost pressure has eased
The “Daily Business News” reporter noted that in September and October 2021, PMI was continuously below the 50% decline line. Entering November, the indicator returned to the line of prosperity and decline. In December, the PMI rose slightly from the previous month.
Zhao Qinghe pointed out that with the intensification of a series of stable economic development policies such as ensuring supply and stabilizing prices and helping companies to relieve difficulties, the prices of some commodities have dropped significantly, the pressure on corporate costs has eased, and the boom in manufacturing has rebounded for two consecutive months.
Based on specific data analysis, Zhao Qinghe found that the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 48.1% and 45.5%, respectively, which were 4.8 and 3.4 percentage points lower than the previous month. They fell for two consecutive months, and both fell to their lowest points since May 2020. . In terms of industry conditions, the two price indices of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries are both lower than 35.0%.
As the prices of some raw materials have fallen, procurement costs have fallen, and companies have accelerated their stocking. The procurement volume index and the raw material inventory index both rose to recent highs, which were 50.8% and 49.2%, respectively, which were significantly higher than the 0.6 and 1.5 percentage points of the previous month.
Li Qilin, chief economist of Hongta Securities, analyzed the reporter of “Daily Economic News”. From the future, it is more certain that the overall downward trend of PPI will not change. The continued easing of cost-side pressures will bring obvious benefits to manufacturing companies, especially mid- and downstream manufacturing companies. This can also be seen from the profit data of industrial enterprises in November. With the easing of costs, the profit situation of mid- and downstream enterprises has improved significantly.
New orders index rebounded for two consecutive months
The “Daily Business News” reporter also noticed that although the PMI’s indicator of external demand is weak, the overall demand indicator in December 2021 has rebounded compared with the previous month.
Data show that the new order index in December 2021 was 49.7%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month, and it rebounded for two consecutive months. At the same time, however, the new export orders index fell back to 48.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Li Qilin analyzed to reporters that when the epidemic hindered the recovery of overseas economies and inflation made overseas loose fiscal and monetary policies to accelerate the withdrawal, China’s export orders fell slightly.
In terms of strong domestic demand, the index of new orders for industries such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and computer communications and electronic equipment in December 2021 will continue to be in the boom range, and is higher than the overall manufacturing industry by more than 3.0 percentage points. In addition, the new order index and employee index of high-tech manufacturing were 56.1% and 51.7%, respectively, 2.9 and 1.1 percentage points higher than last month. The market demand for high-tech manufacturing continued to grow rapidly.
Regarding the PMI performance for the whole year of 2021, Wen Tao, a researcher at the China Logistics Information Center, said that from the perspective of the changes in the manufacturing PMI throughout the year, my country’s economy as a whole will continue to rebound in 2021. The average PMI of the manufacturing industry from January to December is 50.5%, which is higher than The annual average value for 2019 and 2020. What is particularly valuable is that the overall economic recovery results were achieved under the impact of adverse factors such as the slowdown in economic growth in the late period of the epidemic, the continuous skyrocketing of international commodity prices, the spread of sporadic epidemics, and the frequent occurrence of natural disasters, showing that my country’s economy Possess strong resilience and vitality.
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