“You still hear big talk on TV,” says Andrzej Waszczuk, a farmer in Poland. He speaks of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the chairman of the ruling Law and Justice party, PiS for short. He not only promised a purchase price of 1,300 zloty (280 euros) per tonne of wheat, but also stopped imports from the Ukraine as well as intervention purchases.
“But the devil is in the details and no one talks about the details. We’re not going to fall for that. We’re waiting for concrete solutions, which we get. As long as we don’t see any clear, tangible improvements on the markets, we’ll continue to protest.” , he clarifies.
Farmers in Poland are concerned that Ukrainian grain bound for the Middle East and Africa will find its way into the domestic market and push prices down in Poland’s poorest regions once the import freeze is lifted in September.
“Importing Ukrainian grain to Poland poses significant challenges for our farmers, because their products have to compete with products from abroad,” says Wiktor Szmulewicz, President of the Polish Chamber of Agriculture. For Polish farmers, this is unequal competition, he adds, because agricultural products from Ukraine are not subject to European Union standards and are therefore cheaper.
A buyer near the Polish border town of Hrubieszow, who wished to remain anonymous, said he had to pay farmers up to PLN 1,600 (EUR 360) a ton last year. Shortly thereafter, however, prices began to fall rapidly, by as much as 50 percent.
A police officer in Poland protects a grain transport from UkraineImage: Attila Husejnow/SOPA/picture alliance
That’s when the protests started. Wieslaw Gryn is also a farmer and founded the organization “Betrayed Village”. He says protests will continue after the harvest. According to Jan Bieniasz, manager of an agricultural cooperative in the village of Laka, in 2022 about 80 percent of Ukraine’s grain was exported through Poland. Much of this seeped into local markets, driving down prices. “Ukrainian grain at the border was 20 percent cheaper than Polish grain,” he complains.
The Polish People’s Party (PSL) claims that about a third of Ukraine’s grain finds its way into the Polish market, but this figure is disputed. Others believe the rumors are being planted by Russia as part of a hybrid war designed to drive a wedge between Poles and Ukrainians. The farmers’ movement AgroUnia sees it in a statement: “Ukrainian oligarchs and international investment funds that have invested huge sums in food production in Ukraine are benefiting from the current situation”.
News portal Wirtualna Polska examined which Polish companies bought cheaper grain from Ukraine in 2022, and then sold it at a higher price on the Polish market. According to her research, several of the largest buyers allegedly maintained ties to leading PiS politicians. Although the government has pledged to publish its own list of companies that have bought up Ukrainian grain, nothing has happened yet.
Strong words from Warsaw
The PiS-led government faces a dilemma. Parliamentary elections are due before the end of this year and the right-wing extremist alliance Confederation, which is currently at 12 to 13 percent in the polls, knows how to take advantage of the growing resentment in the country about the costs of the Ukraine war for Poland.
Poland has already said it will not resume grain imports from Ukraine after September 15, when the EU-wide import ban is lifted. Four other EU countries – Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia – have also called on the EU to extend restrictions on the sale of Ukrainian grain products until the end of the year. However, they are ready to allow transit of Ukrainian grain through their countries.
In conflict with Kyiv
Ukraine wants the EU to keep open the grain corridors allowing its grain to be exported via the land route through Poland and other Eastern European member states as long as the Black Sea route remains closed. France, Germany and Spain support Ukraine’s concerns, arguing that trade restrictions would not only undermine the integrity of the EU’s internal market but also collective efforts to support Ukraine.
Dispute over Ukrainian grain exports
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German Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir stressed that the only one benefiting from Poland’s demands is Russia, which is trying to force Ukraine out of the global grain market. An extension of the import ban could jeopardize Ukrainian grain exports while boosting Russian exports, especially now that Russia has offered free grain shipments to some African countries.
Dependence of Ukraine on grain exports
According to forecasts, this year’s grain harvest in Ukraine will be only 10 percent below last year’s, at around 60 million tons. Russia’s exit from the grain deal and rocket attacks on grain elevators, including the attack on the port of Chornomorsk that destroyed about 60,000 tons of grain, have reduced supply and pushed up prices.
Oleg Pendzin, executive director of the Economic Discussion Club in Kiev, is convinced that these events will not have a significant impact on grain prices within Ukraine. One reason for this is the decline in the Ukrainian population, because many people have left the country, so demand has fallen.
The country needs about 18 million tons of grain for its 40 million inhabitants. Since around eight million people have fled Ukraine so far, domestic demand has fallen to 13 to 14 million tons, Pendzin calculated in a Ukrainian radio show.
Ukraine thus has around 45 million tons of surplus grain, more than Poland’s total annual production. So Ukraine has to export most of its grain. However, the question is where and how if the Black Sea route is blocked and the Eastern European countries do not want to allow the grain to be exported through their countries.
New routes for Ukrainian grain
New routes for the export of Ukrainian grain were discussed at the last NATO-Ukraine summit. At present, the grain is mainly exported overland. The Baltic Sea ports, especially the Polish ones, play a key role in this.
Finding Safe Ways for Ukrainian Grain Exports
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EU Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski stated that the EU is ready to export almost all of Ukraine’s agricultural production via so-called solidarity corridors, i.e. roads, railways and waterways through the territory of EU countries. There is also the possibility of exporting the grain via a new sea route through the waters of Romania and Bulgaria. According to media outlet Bloomberg, Romania has increased the capacity of the port of Constanta to ship Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea.
But how practicable this plan actually is remains to be seen. On Wednesday, Russian drones struck the port city of Ismail on the Danube, which forms the border between Ukraine and Romania. According to Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, around 44,000 tons of grain destined for Africa, China and Israel were damaged in the attack.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry announced that an agreement has been reached between Kiev and Zagreb to export Ukrainian grain through Croatian ports. On the new Baltic Sea route, 25 million tons could be handled via the ports of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. However, in order for this route to be used, suitable administrative facilities must be created on the Polish side.
Adapted from English by Phoenix Hanzo.