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Positive Signs of Economic Recovery and Expectations for Further Stability Measures

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Positive Signs of Economic Recovery and Expectations for Further Stability Measures

Major economic indicators are recovering and more policies to stabilize growth can be expected

According to recent data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the Chinese economy continues to show signs of recovery. The data reveals positive signals, including a significant increase in RMB loans and a rebound in the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for three consecutive months. These indicators indicate the effectiveness of the government’s policy measures to expand domestic demand, boost confidence, and prevent risks.

From the production side, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.5% year-on-year in August, contributing to the overall economic growth. The equipment manufacturing industry played a significant role, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in added value. The government’s targeted policies and measures have led to the industrial sector’s recovery and the acceleration of most industries’ growth.

On the demand side, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year in August, with the growth rate accelerating from the previous month. Service consumption also experienced a notable increase, with a 19.4% year-on-year rise in retail sales of services. This consumption-driven growth has had a positive impact on the overall market.

Regarding investment, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.2% year-on-year from January to August. Key areas, such as infrastructure and manufacturing, experienced rapid growth, indicating that the policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth have been effective.

Additional data released on the 15th of September further supports the overall positive trend. The manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.7%, rising for three consecutive months. The consumer price index turned from a decrease of 0.3% to an increase of 0.1%. The producer price index also turned positive for the first time this year. Import and export figures showed a narrowed decline in August, stabilizing compared to June and July. RMB loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan in August, reaching a new high for the year.

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While these indicators paint a positive picture, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, emphasized the need to consolidate the foundation for economic recovery. External factors of instability and uncertainty remain, and domestic demand is still insufficient. To address these challenges, measures to stabilize growth, employment, and prevent risks will be accelerated in the next stage.

To further support economic recovery, macroeconomic policies will continue to be implemented. The People’s Bank of China recently lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, releasing liquidity and lowering policy interest rates. The fiscal policy plans to issue special bonds and supports infrastructure investment. Various departments are also working on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing external demand through policies that attract private investment and promote foreign trade.

It is important to note that market risk appetite has not fully stabilized, and confidence in the real sector needs further boosting. The implementation of more policies is necessary to lay a solid foundation for the economy’s recovery.

Source: Economic Information Daily

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