Summary
[Real estate staged “The Return of the King”? These star fund managers lurked in advance or even “broken the circle” to buy! Looking at the market outlook in this way]Under the logic of “steady growth”, the real estate sector, which has been neglected for a long time, is returning to investors’ vision. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the real estate sector has staged a “W” trend. The Shenwan Real Estate Index once rebounded by nearly 20% from November to January, but continued to pull back in February and March until last week, when the real estate sector resumed its gains. , rose more than 15% in the past five trading days as of March 22. (Broker China)
Under the logic of “steady growth”, the real estate sector, which has been neglected for a long time, is returning to investors’ vision.
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the real estate sector has staged a “W” trend. The Shenwan Real Estate Index once rebounded by nearly 20% from November to January, but continued to pull back in February and March until last week, when the real estate sector resumed its gains. , rose more than 15% in the past five trading days as of March 22.
On March 22, the real estate sector collectively rose sharply, and several state-owned real estate companies rose even more significantly. E.g,Tianjin harborControlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau of the Free Trade ZoneTianbao Infrastructurealready 5 even boards, in addition,Suzhou High-tech4 plates,Special service、World Union Bank、Jiakai CityA number of state-owned real estate stocks rose by the daily limit on March 22, and the Shenwan Real Estate Index rose 3.5% as a whole.
Recently, the annual reports of listed companies andfundThe annual reports have been disclosed one after another. Judging from the public information in the annual reports, many star fund managers have lurked in real estate stocks and related industry chains in advance. Among them, there are even fund managers who are good at investing in new energy and consumption.
Many star fund managers “break the circle” latent real estate industry chain
HSBC Jintrust’s star fund manager Lu Bin has always been known for his good at new energy investment, but the fund’s regular reports show that he has been aggressively adding real estate stocks since the second half of last year. Take HSBC Jintrust Dynamic Strategy Fund as an example,Vanke AFrom the 2021 interim report, it has appeared in the list of the top ten stocks of the fund, and by the end of 2021, it has been added to the fund’s largest stock;Poly DevelopmentRanked the fifth-largest holding of the fund, accounting forFund NAVratio of about 3.57%; in addition, the fund’s holdings also appearedChina Merchants Shekou、Zhongnan ConstructionAnd so many real estate stocks.
Lu Bin is acceptingbrokerageChinese reporters said in an interview that they did increase a lot of value-biased positions last year, of which real estate is a typical representative. At that time, it was mainly based on two reasons:
First, the forecast policy will be adjusted. He believes that although the market was more pessimistic about the policy-related industries last year, the policy turning point of real estate has actually appeared in the fourth quarter of last year, and a series of positive policies will be released in the future, which has been verified recently;
Second, the supply of real estate has been clearly cleared. He believes that this is the biggest change in the industry. Uncompetitive companies are withdrawing from the market one after another, and the real estate industry may transform from a financial-oriented business model to a public utility-oriented business model.
“The biggest change in this industry is that the demand has decreased by 50%, but the supply side has dropped by 90%. Especially after the policy adjustment, there is a high probability that the pricing model and valuation behind the entire industry will also change, and the business model of the industry will also change. Change.” Lu Bin said that with the clearing of the supply side, the future differentiation of the real estate industry may expand, and he said that he would also make some structural adjustments.
Compared with real estate development, some fund managers are more optimistic about home appliances, property management and services in the real estate industry chain.
For example, recently, property stocksInvestment surplusThe 2021 annual report disclosed that the new GF multi-factor fund managed by Tang Xiaobin and Yang Dong has become the fourth largest circulationshareholder, the market value of the positions is about 380 million yuan. The fund used to buy cyclical stocks last year, and the operation of the mismatch between coal supply and demand under the dual-carbon logic was impressive. This time, it mainly increased its positions in financial real estate in the fourth quarter.
also,Everbright Prudential FundZhan Jia, Director of the International Business Department, increased his positions in a number of home appliance stocks and Hong Kong property stocks in the fourth quarter of last year.Poly PropertyThe No. 1 heavy-holding stock in Everbright Prudential’s quality life; in addition, the fund also has a heavy holdingXinchengyue Service、Country GardenServe,Greentown ServiceWait,Midea Group、Haier Smart HomeAnd other home appliance stocks also got their additions.
In Zhan Jia’s view, property stocks have strong anti-cyclical properties. The current low valuation is mainly affected by the clearing of the real estate supply side. Once the clearing is over, the property stocks that were killed by mistake will usher in a sharp rebound; at the same time , Unlike the real estate development industry, which “depends on the land to eat”, property management is an industry with full market competition. Under the trend of consumption upgrading and lazy economy, the property management fee is gradually rising, which also contains the excess of some individual stocks. Earning Opportunities.
Zhan Jia’s previous positions were mostly concentrated in the fields of consumption and medicine, but since the second half of last year, property and home appliances have gradually appeared in Zhan Jia’s heavy holding list. He also said in the interview that his main operation last year was to reduce the valuation of the portfolio. The valuations of the above two industries are both low and in line with the policy direction of steady growth.
The policy warm air supports the rebound of the real estate sector
Fund managers generally believe that the real estate sector has continued to pick up recently, mainly because the real estate industry is responsible for the task of “steady growth”, and the market expects that the policy relaxation period will be approaching. From the news point of view, the recent housing loan market policy has been warm, releasing many positive signals.
On the one hand, the government work report once again confirmed the policy tone of “steady growth”, and expressed a more positive attitude towards the real estate market, proposing “exploring new development models”, “adhering to both renting and purchasing”, and “implementing city-specific policies to promote a healthy real estate industry.” “Cycle”, etc., combined with the recent reduction of personal housing loans in many placesinterest rateAs well as the mortgage down payment ratio, subsequent real estate sales and investment are expected to pick up.
On the other hand, there are concerns about the exposure of real estate credit risks in recent years and the resulting market concerns. The Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council also pointed out at a special meeting on March 16 that with regard to real estate companies, it is necessary to promptly study and propose effective and effective response plans to prevent and defuse risks, and propose supporting measures for the transition to a new development model. On the same day, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance all released policies to support the stable development of real estate.
Judging from the market reaction, the concentrated statements of many ministries and commissions have greatly boosted the confidence of the industry and stabilized market expectations. On March 21, the March LPR quotation was released, and the 1-year and 5-year terms remained unchanged. Although it may be lower than some investors’ expectations for LPR to cut interest rates, the real estate sector has bucked the trend and strengthened after a slight decline, or Optimistic performance of the market.
Optimistic about the future performance of real estate and related industry chains
Looking forward to the market outlook, under the expectation of steady growth, manyfund companyIndicates that he is optimistic about the real estate and related industry chains.
For example, CITICPrudentialThe fund believes that the recent policies have been more positive on the real estate market. Combined with the recent reduction in the proportion of housing loans and the improvement in financing of real estate companies, the real estate sector is expected to bottom out under the joint improvement of the demand side and the supply side:
On the demand side, the “city-specific policy” space on the city’s demand side may be opened up, and it will enter a period of accelerated implementation; the government work report emphasizes “demand” and meets the rational purchase of “new citizens”creditDemand may bring about further changes in “city-specific policies”, coupled with financial and other policy support, urban housing demand, especially improvement housing demand, is expected to continue to release.
On the supply side,M&AFinancing, real estate bond issuance, and supervision of pre-sale funds have all been improved. Reasonable reforms on the supply side of the industry are an inevitable requirement to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the industry. High-quality leading companies are expected to benefit significantly.
A South China fund manager predicts that in the first half of 2022, real estate sales will stabilize and infrastructure investment will increase, and the second half will see a recovery in real estate investment. In this context, the profitability of the real estate infrastructure industry chain is expected to be repaired. At the same time, when the new mechanism of the real estate market is established and enters a state of stable operation in the medium and long term, companies in the relevant industrial chain will be revalued. Therefore, it is expected that the real estate infrastructure industry chain may become the dominant direction of the market in the future, and obtain investment opportunities with a double increase in valuation and profit.
Specifically in the investment sector,Cathay FundSaid that the two sessions mainly mentioned “supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers”. At this stage, after valuation repairs, we will pay attention to the pace of data improvement of industry fundamentals in the future, focusing on real estate leaders, building materials, home appliances, light industry, etc. plate.
Zhan Jia said that in addition to the property stocks mentioned above, he is also very optimistic about the performance of the home appliance sector. He believes that, on the one hand, with technological upgrading and technological innovation, the market recognition of high-end product lines of domestic home appliances is getting higher and higher. A high-end brand broke through tens of billions of sales last year, and achieved a domestic market share that surpassed that of overseas traditions. The goal of the old brand has contributed nearly half of the profits to the company; on the other hand, some leading home appliances are improving their corporate governance structure by merging sales companies and acquiring high-quality brands.Appliance industryEndogenous, long-lasting changes are taking place.
(Article source: Broker China)
(Original title: Real estate staged “The Return of the King”? These star fund managers lurked in advance, and even bought “out of the circle”! Look at the market outlook like this…)
(Editor in charge: 43)