(Original title: Expectations still need to be improved! Sales prices of commercial residential buildings continued to fall in November, and second-hand housing prices in only three cities rose, and this place once again led the country.)
The expected improvement in the real estate market may take longer.
On December 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in November 2021. The latest data shows that in November, 70 large and medium-sized cities were newly built commercial housing (hereinafter referred to as “new housing”) and second-hand housing. (Hereinafter referred to as “second-hand housing”) The sales price continued to decline from the previous month, and the year-on-year increase continued to fall.
Since June this year, the monthly month-on-month price declines of new and second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities have become more frequent. According to statistics from a brokerage China reporter, in November, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the price of new houses in only 9 cities increased month-on-month, which was a decrease of 4 compared with October; and only three cities increased the price of second-hand houses from the previous month, which was a decrease compared with October. 1 piece. In November, the number of cities where the prices of new and second-hand houses fell from the previous month reached a new high this year.
Experts pointed out that the current real estate market has strong wait-and-see sentiment, real estate companies’ confidence is still weak, and market expectations still need time to improve. At present, signs of the bottoming of the market are showing. With the initial effect of the real estate market’s corrective policies, market sales are expected to pick up, the completion of real estate enterprises is accelerating, and a virtuous circle of rapid turnover and leverage reduction may be forming. Next, some cities may introduce supportive policies for first homes and improved housing due to city-based policies, which will speed up the bottoming of market transactions and ease the pressure on housing prices.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics official website
Commercial housing prices in various lines continued to decline in November
Since June this year, the monthly month-on-month price declines of new and second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities have become more frequent. According to statistics from a brokerage China reporter, in November, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the price of new houses in only 9 cities increased month-on-month, which was a decrease of 4 compared with October; and only three cities increased the price of second-hand houses from the previous month, which was a decrease compared with October. 1 piece. In November, the number of cities where the prices of new and second-hand houses fell from the previous month reached a new high this year.
From the perspective of housing price fluctuations, in November, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in various tier cities dropped overall month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate continued to fall.
From the month-on-month comparison of the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in various tier cities in November:
The sales prices of new homes in 4 first-tier cities remained flat month-on-month, while the sales prices of second-hand homes fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of new house prices, Beijing and Shanghai rose 0.3% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively, Guangzhou fell 0.6%, and Shenzhen remained flat. In terms of second-hand housing prices, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell by 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.
The sales prices of new and second-hand houses in 31 second-tier cities both fell by 0.4% month-on-month, and the rate of decline expanded by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
The sales price of new houses in 35 third-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as the previous month; the sales price of second-hand houses fell by 0.4% month-on-month, and the rate of decline was 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous month.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, believes that the overall decline in housing prices continued in November. On the one hand, the current market transaction enthusiasm is still at the bottom of the adjustment period, and buyers have a strong voice; on the other hand, some banks have released mortgage loan lines near the end of the year, and the demand for house purchases has recovered. Sell the houses as soon as possible and lower the price, such as the increase of price reduction behavior among second-hand house owners, and the early price reduction promotion by real estate companies.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, also pointed out that in November, cities of all tiers were still under cooling pressure. Among them, the decline of second-hand housing was greater than that of new housing, and the decline showed an expanding trend. With the current loosening of credit policies, new houses may have greater advantages. The external environment of the second-hand housing market is not good, and both landlords and home buyers are showing a wait-and-see mood.
Hainan enters the peak sales season after winter
According to the statistics of a brokerage China reporter, from the perspective of the month-on-month increase in sales price, the cities with the highest increase in new house prices in November are: Sanya (0.7%), Hangzhou (0.5%), Beijing, Yinchuan, and Yueyang (0.3%); second-hand The cities with the highest housing price increase are Ganzhou (0.4%), Haikou (0.3%), and Tangshan (0.2%).
From the perspective of the degree of increase, only the sales price of new houses in Sanya saw a significant increase in November. Yan Yuejin said that the relatively large increase in housing prices in Sanya may be related to the lack of new housing supply in Sanya. At the same time, Haikou and Sanya are affected by the lack of new housing, and second-hand housing prices are prone to hype.
It is worth noting that the month-on-month decline in the sales price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen has narrowed. Xu Xiaole said that in November, the decline in second-hand housing prices in a few large and medium-sized cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing was the first to narrow, or because of the high replacement ratio of the housing market in large and medium-sized cities, the improvement in the credit environment in October and November prompted the flow of housing exchange chains and market transactions. The volume showed signs of bottoming, and market expectations have improved, leading to a narrowing of the decline in housing prices.
Judging from the ranking of the month-on-month decline in sales prices, in terms of new house prices, Shijiazhuang (1.2%), Guiyang (1.1%), and Dali (1%) experienced larger declines. In terms of second-hand housing prices, Dali, Harbin (1.0%), Luzhou (0.9%), Nanchong, Luoyang, Taiyuan, and Shijiazhuang (0.8%) experienced significant declines.
At present, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in third- and fourth-tier cities have still fallen sharply. Xu Xiaole also pointed out that the weaker second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities are dominated by weaker second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities whose declines continue to expand. The overall support for housing demand in these cities is relatively weak, and it will take longer for market expectations to build a bottom and improve.
Market expectations still need time to improve
Despite the recent improvement in the credit environment of the real estate market, not only did the sales prices of commercial housing continue to decline in November, the growth rate of the sales area of commercial housing and real estate development investment from January to November also fell from January to October. Experts believe that the current real estate sales environment has not achieved significant improvement, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the confidence of real estate companies is still weak, and it takes time to improve.
In Xu Xiaole’s view, the decline in housing prices will gradually narrow in the later period. According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the second-hand housing transaction volume of Shell 50 City continued to rebound from October to November, showing signs of bottoming in the market. According to the basic law of “quantity comes before price”, the initial bottoming of the quantity will lay the foundation for the later price to stop falling. In terms of expectations, since December, the second-hand housing boom index of Shell 50 cities has stopped falling and improved. Among them, key cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions are expected to improve more significantly.
The recent Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it will support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. Xu Xiaole said that the housing credit environment will be further improved in the later period. Some cities may introduce supportive policies for first homes and improved housing under the city’s policy. This will speed up the bottoming of market transactions and reduce the pressure on housing prices.
Wang Jingwen, a senior researcher at the Minsheng Bank Research Institute, also believes that with the initial effect of the real estate market correction policy, market sales are expected to pick up, the completion of housing enterprises will accelerate, and a virtuous circle of rapid turnover and lower leverage may be forming.
Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in the next stage, in accordance with the requirements of the central government, we must adhere to the positioning of “housing and living without speculation”, insist on simultaneous purchase and rent, accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, and support a better commercial housing market. To meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, implement policies based on the city, promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, and better meet the needs of the people.
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