(Original title: Many airlines’ operating data declined in December last year, analysts are still optimistic about improving industry demand)
Affected by the epidemic, domestic air passenger throughput and port cargo throughput both declined significantly in December 2021, but they still rebounded month-on-month compared to November. Although affected by the epidemic prevention and control in the short term, the operating data of various airlines has pressed the pause button, but brokerage analysts are still optimistic about the improvement of industry demand.
Overall capacity declines year-on-year in December
In terms of passenger transport capacity investment (measured by available seat kilometers), the passenger transport capacity investment of various airlines in December last year dropped significantly year-on-year, but it still rebounded compared with November last year.
China Southern Airlines (600029) and its subsidiaries saw a year-on-year decrease of 31.96% in passenger transport capacity.
Spring Airlines (601021)’s passenger capacity investment increased by 10.29% month-on-month and decreased by 21.63% year-on-year.
Air China (601111) passenger transport capacity investment decreased by 33.3% year-on-year and increased by 30.8% month-on-month.
In terms of passenger turnover (measured by revenue passenger kilometers), the data of many airlines in December last year dropped by about 30% year-on-year, and the passenger load factor was about 60%. Among them, Spring Airlines’ passenger load factor exceeds 70%, and the decline in passenger turnover is also smaller than that of other airlines.
The passenger turnover of China Southern Airlines decreased by 37.35% year-on-year; the passenger load factor was 64.92%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.58 percentage points.
Spring Airlines passenger turnover increased by 7.15% month-on-month and decreased by 26.16% year-on-year; the average passenger load factor was 74.74%, down 2.19% month-on-month and 4.58% year-on-year; the total number of passengers carried was 1.35 million, a month-on-month increase of 5.21% and a year-on-year decrease of 27.4%.
China’s air passenger turnover decreased by 37.4% year-on-year and increased by 40.1% month-on-month; the average passenger load factor was 63.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 4.2 percentage points.
The passenger throughput of Xiamen Airport (600,897) was 948,500, a year-on-year decrease of 43.87%.
In terms of domestic cargo, the throughput of many airlines and ports in December last year was not as good as that of the same period in 2020, but the capacity and load factor of Air China increased steadily.
China Southern Airlines’ cargo capacity investment (calculated by available ton-kilometers – freight and mail) decreased by 15.18% year-on-year; cargo and mail turnover (calculated by revenue ton-kilometer – freight and mail) increased by 4.50% year-on-year; cargo and mail load factor was 58.04%, a year-on-year increase 10.93 percentage points.
Spring Airlines saw a year-on-year decrease of 10.79% in its cargo capacity investment, a year-on-year decrease of 14.62% in its cargo and mail turnover, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.38 percentage points in its cargo and mail load factor of 75.36%.
Air China’s investment in freight capacity increased by 4.4% year-on-year, and its cargo and mail turnover increased by 9.3% year-on-year; its cargo load factor was 38.9%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year.
The cargo and mail throughput of Xiamen Airport was 26,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.12%.
The market is optimistic about the improvement of industry demand
Despite the impact of the epidemic in some regions, the airline’s operational data has recovered and the pause button has been pressed. However, with the comprehensive promotion of vaccines, the accelerated development of drugs, and the orderly implementation of prevention and control measures, the market parties continue to be optimistic about the improvement in sector demand and the recovery of performance.
Recently, the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Transport jointly issued the “14th Five-Year Plan for Civil Aviation Development”, pointing out that the passenger traffic is expected to reach 930 million in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 5.9 in 6 years (from 2019). %.
According to the “Plan”, 2021-2022 is the recovery period and the accumulation period. It is necessary to combine the epidemic prevention and control to regulate the deployment of transportation capacity, accumulate development momentum, and promote the industry to resume growth; 2023-2025 is the growth period and release period, expand the domestic market, restore In the international market, we will promote the high-quality development of civil aviation in an all-round way.
Industry insiders pointed out that according to the 14th Five-Year Plan, by 2025, my country’s civil aviation passenger traffic will maintain a growth rate comparable to the GDP growth rate. In the case of low-speed supply growth in the medium term, the industry is expected to usher in a supply and demand reversal.
In addition, the return to hometown during the Spring Festival is carried out in an orderly manner, and the demand for air travel is also expected to improve year-on-year.
Many provinces and cities have made it clear that a nucleic acid certificate is required for returning home. The Ministry of Transport and 14 departments jointly issued the “Opinions on Doing a Good Job in the 2022 Spring Festival Transport”, requiring epidemic prevention and control while ensuring the safe and orderly flow of people, and resolutely preventing one-size-fits-all and layer-by-layer Plus code.
On January 4th, Air China, Hainan Airlines, Tianjin Airlines, Kunming Airlines and other airlines issued a notice. According to the spirit of the relevant documents of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Civil Aviation Administration, from 0:00 on January 5, 2022 (the date of ticket issuance) , cancel the collection of fuel surcharges for domestic routes.
The transportation industry analyst of Essence Securities believes that on the demand side, the worst period of the epidemic is basically over, and with the advancement of vaccinations and special drugs, the suppressed travel demand is expected to recover explosively. On the supply side, airlines have been slow to introduce capacity, and orders from Boeing and Airbus have piled up. Even if the 737MAX returns to service, the low growth rate of capacity will not change. In the medium term, the low-speed growth of supply has high certainty. In addition, the market-oriented reform of civil aviation fares has opened up flexible space for price increases. The inflection point of supply and demand is deterministic and the fare rises, and aviation is expected to usher in a growth cycle.