The Shanghai stock index probes low and stabilizes, the ChiNext stock index strengthens the consolidation and pays attention to the short-term overheated sector’s callback pressure
Metropolis Express report On Monday, A-shares probed low and stabilized. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index opened lower by 0.25%, then fluctuated lower. After falling nearly 1%, it stabilized and recovered, and closed down 0.01%; the GEM index opened higher by 0.16%, showing an emphasis on consolidation throughout the day, closing up 0.49%. The total volume of the two cities has shrunk, and individual stocks have risen by about 40%.
How to look at Monday’s trend and what will happen next?
“In the short term, the A-share market will still be under pressure” is true, and “the Shanghai Stock Index is not a big problem” has also been verified. On Monday, the Shanghai Stock Index tested the lower track of the rising channel and can quickly recover, which is not bad.
Surprisingly, apart from the fact that insurance stocks and the Shanghai Stock Index have been trending downward and stabilizing simultaneously, the other weighted sectors have not performed well. On the contrary, brokerages and banks are still dragging their feet, so the Shanghai Index has not fallen.
It shows that the Shanghai Stock Index as a whole has a certain degree of resilience, and the influence of traditional heavy stocks on the stock index is relatively reduced. However, due to insufficient capacity and energy, it is not easy to start a large weighting sector.
Therefore, in the short term, the Shanghai stock market is still a pattern of resistance and weakness. Currently, the rising channel and the EXP indicator have not broken. However, from the perspective of the entire third quarter, we still maintain a bearish view.
The GEM index is too much affected by heavyweight stocks, and the short-term trend is “sweet or salty”-Monday is a bit sweet: stock indexes have maintained a red market, while individual stocks have fallen more or less-still a familiar taste.
It is worth mentioning that the Ningde era closed the second high negative line with volume, and the entire lithium battery sector was also clearly differentiated. There were daily limit and down limit, but most of them fell, and the sector index fell by 1.6%.
Perhaps a strong “track” like lithium batteries still has inertia in the short-term, and the long-term (in several years) may also be optimistic, but the mid-term trend requires a cautious and worried attitude.
Too much increase is certainly one reason, new investment in the industry and the accelerated expansion of production capacity are also a sign of peaking at a stage worthy of attention. There are many similar situations. For example, Ingram Medical and Lanfan Medical, in the context of the global epidemic, have invested billions and billions to expand production capacity. Although short-term performance has exploded, the stock price has already exceeded its peak.
There are also pork stocks. In the past two years, the price of pigs has continued to rise. Many pig companies have expanded their scale and increased investment, but their stock prices have also peaked. When the price of pigs fell, even the leading companies lost a lot.
Now, not only in the Ningde era, but also the leading lithium battery companies such as Duo Fluoride, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yiwei Lithium Energy are increasing investment and expanding production capacity without exception. It remains to be seen how the cards will be reshuffled in the future.
The ChiNext index can be said to a certain extent that “it is the only one with lithium, but it is difficult to move without lithium”, and its trend will be affected by highly speculated sectors such as lithium batteries. Therefore, we have repeatedly emphasized that we should be cautious in the mid-line.
In the short term, opportunities and risks coexist for GEM stocks, and hot spots are switching quickly. The market structure has not changed significantly. However, everyone must take precautions. It is possible to do short-term, but it is necessary to keep a clear mind on the mid-term trend. (Express Securities)