Singapore iron ore futures prices fell by more than 10%, hitting a minimum of US$90/ton.
The most miserable bulk: iron ore is not exhausted next
In the past two months, iron ore has been the commodity with the most rapid decline. On the spot market, on September 19, 61.5% Australian iron ore fines (Qingdao Port) The price is 632 yuan/ton. More than a month ago, the price of this variety was still above 1200 yuan/ton. In mid-May of this year, the price of this variety was as high as 1,600 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the current latest price of iron ore main company is 629 yuan/ton, which is also half down from two months ago.
Statistics show that, at present, domestic port stocks of iron ore are 129.76 million tons. Since late June, iron ore port stock data has gradually increased.
It is worth noting that in mid-May this year, the price of iron ore once reached the highest level in history, the price was 260% at this time, but at that time the iron ore port inventory was not too far from the current inventory level. According to Nishimoto According to trunk line data, the inventory gap is within 5 million tons.
Shanghai Steel UnionIron oreAnalystYu Chen analyzed that due to the strong market demand in the first half of the year and the high production enthusiasm of steel mills, the price of iron ore continued to rise in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, due to the upgrading of production restrictions in various regions, the price of iron ore returned to the low point of the year. level.
Yu Chen believes that from the implementation of production restrictions in the second half of the year, it is expected that subsequent production restrictions may have room for upgrading. From September to October, the first-level early warning of energy consumption dual control will strengthen production restrictions in Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Xinjiang, etc. The provinces and cities that responded to the dual control of energy consumption increased their production restrictions in September. Taking Jiangsu as an example, most steel mills have more concentrated production reduction and maintenance plans since September 10. Yu Chen predicts that in the fourth quarter, the accumulation of iron ore at the port will accelerate, and the subsequent stock of iron ore at the port may return to above 150 million tons.
Wang Guoqing, director of the Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, analyzed to the Economic Observation Network on September 19 that iron ore prices may continue to weaken, which is mainly affected bysteel industryReduce production and dual control of energy consumption in multiple locations and comprehensive control of air pollution in autumn and winter. “China SteelThe decline in output has led to a decline in iron ore demand, the contradiction between iron ore supply and demand has become prominent, and price fluctuations have declined. “Wang Guoqing said. (Source: Economic Observation Network)
(Article Source: Interface News)