We are living in a phase of radical changes in international relations which is redesigning the entire structure of the world economy and poses complex and largely unprecedented challenges for the European Union.
In a nutshell, three changes can be cited as among the most relevant, in general and for their impact on Europe. First of all, in international relations, i’s now count more power relations between countries than the multilateral rules and institutions of the past. Security conditions have a decisive influence on the economic choices of countries. Secondly, the phase of ecological transition, a truly epochal challenge for the survival of humanity, has accelerated more recently and is closely intertwined, after Putin’s war, with the problem of energy security. Finally, a heat is consolidating industrial and technological competition between the major countries and, in particular, between the two superpowers, the United States and China, aimed at assuming advantageous positions in the commercial and strategic fields.
For Europe, these changes represent just as many challenges to face. Some responses, even important ones, have come from the Union in more recent years, through unprecedented interventions and the mobilization of a significant amount of resources. This was the case at the time of the pandemic with the adoption of a common approach in purchasing, supplying and distributing Covid-19 vaccines. And then with the launch of the program Next Generation EU (e RRF), financed with common debt and based on the double green and digital transition. Again, EU countries adopted it quickly and unanimously heavy sanctions against Moscow in response to the invasion of Ukrainewhile drastically reducing their dependence on Russian gas.
These were undoubtedly important steps forward. But the world has changed in the meantime and even more quickly. After Putin’s war it posed new and even more complex challenges to Europe. In our book “Sovereign Europe” we analyze them and suggest various policy responses from the Union, adopting an approach of International Political Economy, a discipline that looks atinteraction between economics and politics in the choices of countries and which often remains ignored in Europe. We thus outline a path towards an EU structure that we could define as sovereign, both internally and externally, the latter dimension having been considered less relevant in the past.
In the domestic context, the challenge in a nutshell concerns the European growth model which he deeply owes reconvert to adapt to the new global context. And the fundamental lever is the environmental and digital transition, which represents a major transformation project for the EU, like others in the past, such as the construction of the Internal Market and monetary unification. But it is a reconversion that is difficult because it must stop and reverse a process of deindustrialization and technological retreat that has been ongoing for some time and which is threatening important parts of the European manufacturing base. To be successful, the EU must implement a range of policies and introduce new tools for industrial and technological policy intervention who know how to link innovation, technology and competitiveness.
A sovereign Europe also means facing a second, equally important, external challenge affirm a new and strengthened role for the Union at global level. It has taken on particular relevance in the current global context in which interdependence is a source not only of economic opportunities and prosperity, as in the past, but also of potential vulnerabilities and clashes of sovereignty, capable of triggering growing conflict between countries.
In this new context Europe must arrive at define its own strategic autonomy which allows it to influence international affairs and contribute to the definition of one governance global. Among the large poles, Europe is the one with the greatest degree of openness and to continue to grow it needs a world economy that remains open, while taking into account new geopolitical and security factors.
And there is no doubt that theconnection between economy and security represents today – as already observed – a fundamental characteristic of relations between the major countries. Europe has also begun to take notice, especially after the invasion of Ukraine. But much remains to be done to integrate economic and geopolitical interests and factors into a real European strategy, together with the tools to be used. It is a fundamental step for the Union to be able to pursue its own sovereignty and a capacity for ‘resilience’ at various levels so as to act as a protagonist in the new global context.
Lastly, the relaunch of sustainable growth and the affirmation of a strengthened role at a global level can only be achieved on the condition that the Union has more resources and intervention tools than today. The European governance system in the current structure it absolutely cannot be enough. In other words, you need your own profound restructuring and renovation. And this is the third great challenge for Europe, which closely influences the other two.
In this regard, various possible configurations of Europe’s future integration path must be hypothesized. It is our belief that one of his greater differentiation by groups of countries depending on integration preferences is a passage that will be seen as unavoidable. Even more so in view of the enlargement of the EU to Ukraine and the Balkan countries, which is destined to significantly increase heterogeneity within the EU. Even if strong political resistance could prevent moving in this direction.
The greatest risk, however, is another and it is status quo dell’Unione. The stalling of the integration process would end up accentuating the divisions between European countries and increasing the danger of a dramatic marginalization of Europe in the presence of a global context in radical and rapid transformation.