Two years after the military coup, the government in exile of Myanmar it achieved decisive stability, associating the consistency of a territorial occupation to the political structure. The Government of National Unity (GUN) – born in April 2021 to oppose the dictatorship of the junta – obtained control over various portions of the territory with a military initiative that saw the creation of a real armed force and a “defensive warfare” (as defined by the GUN and the National League for Democracy, NLD) or, as the Tatmadaw military government defines it, “terrorist war”. However, a solution to the crisis is certainly far from being foreseeable.
The repression of the regime it caused the death of at least 3500 people suspected of having ties to the GUN or pro-democracy movements (as reported on the website of the NGO Assistence Association for Political Prisoners). In the clashes between rebel forces and government forces and between ethnic factions and government forces, the number of victims should be around 33,000, although it is very difficult to estimate. In this context, the government has given clear testimony of making extensive use of extra-judicial executions: it is a civil war among the most violent currently underway and since at least the second half of 2022, the government has conducted indiscriminate bombing to target territories controlled by the GUN and ethnic militias newly employed in recent weeks, such as those in the Sagaing region.
The sangha and the civil war
The community of believers Buddhists and the sangha proper (monks and nuns of various orders) has historically played a very important role in the socio-economic and socio-political system of Myanmar. Organizations have gone from being the backbone of commerce at the time of independence to being a central element for the labor marketwith a weight in the political evolution of the country.
In 1948 Buddhist organizations and the sangha supported i independence movementsjust as they were essential in the “Saffron Revolution” of 2007-2008 which led to the slow process of democratization which culminated with the 2015 elections and ended tragically with the coup d’état.
The more extremist portions of the community, also represented by ultra-conservative organizations such as Ma Ba Tha (short for Patriotic Association of Myanmar) and the 969 movement they then participated in the violence against the Muslim community of Rakhine (and other states) and the subsequent genocide. The unfortunate episodes of Rakhine and of the violence against certain minority ethnic groups promoted by the military have further discredited the central government and caused the assumption of the act of force with which the executive loyal to Aung San Suu Kyi (also presented before the International Court of Justice to defend the civilian government) was then overthrown.
After February 2021 the community of the faithful finally, it launched messages against the dictatorship but sometimes discordant and, contrary to what happened in the country’s political history, it maintained a very marginal role. This behavior depends on the fact that the GUN has taken a path strongly conditioned by the military rebellion which may not fully align with Buddhist ideals or, more likely, because through a campaign of donation and religious solidarity the military rulers, and in the front row General Min Aung Hlain (strong man of the country) have begun to cultivate the relationship with the religious organizations. If the sangha does not obtain proactive involvement from the shadow government, as things stand, its role in opposition to the coup government appears unlikely.
The repression and violence of the military
The issue of repression against i pro-democracy movements, whose most evident image is the bombings, is articulated in a series of juridical abuses against the members of the LND. The convictions of Aung San Suu Kyi by the judiciary of the military regime amount to a total of 33 years (the last of which were imposed on him at the end of December). The accusations made against the elderly politician were varied and sometimes bordering on the surreal, as was the case for many other leaders and officials of the NLD, who were convicted, with the result of having most of the politicians with previous experience of governing the country of non-government-controlled parties.
The military junta has stated that this is not a repression aimed at disqualifying and defeating the electoral competitors, cutting off the heads of the pre-existing elites of the coup, however the very recent decision to dissolve and ban the NLD and numerous other parties leaves little doubt . Controlling the party landscape is critical to the self-described military government”guardian of the country” and it seems clear, also given that the state of emergency that allows the military to suspend the electoral process was extended in February, that the junta will try to keep the government system in place until it has unconditional control of the political landscape.
implications for international politics
The United States and Great Britain have openly condemned the attitude of continuous postponement of the electoral round and imposed some sanctions, however according to various commentators the Biden government could do more in terms of international isolation to discredit the Myanmar government. L’European Union has maintained a firmer stance of condemnation beyond the sanctions that reached a sixth round in February this year.
As for i ASEAN countries these agreed on a plan called Five Point Consensus which included a call for an end to violence in the country, but in the face of non-compliance by the conflicting parties they have not been able to impose themselves. Finally, the conduct of the Russia, which granted unconditional support to the military regime in exchange for international diplomatic support and that of the Chinesewhich after an initial coldness towards the military regime is maintaining a level of indifference so as not to compromise its relations with ASEAN.
The international panorama is therefore decidedly fragmented and it is no wonder that this situation can guarantee a temporary safe-conduct to the military dictatorship.