L’Italia supera l’esame di Dbrs
The Canadian rating agency promotes the resilience that the economy had during Covid and the Russo-Ukrainian war, such as to guarantee our country growth rates today higher than other big Europeans. In recent years, Dbrs analysts write in an ad hoc report, Italy has faced “multiple shocks”: the pandemic, supply-side bottlenecks and an energy shock, all amidst political uncertainty and three different governments. However, “none of these have so far translated into significant economic scars” and precisely for this reason the judgment on the debt Italian remains at the BBB level, defined as “high”.
The post-Covid recovery has been better than expected
Growth “has been stronger than its peers. Potential GDP growth appears to be improving and the debt it should continue to decrease in the next few years”, highlighted the agency. The Roman weak point the debt high which makes the country “vulnerable”. However, given the IMF’s assumptions on the gradual reduction of the ratio to GDP, expectations are that the increase in interest payments will be somehow balanced by “solid progress” on the consolidation of public finances.
The new Stability Pact will not be a problem
For analysts, even the new version of the Stability Pact being worked on in Brussels shouldn’t be a problem. Dbrs expects Italy to “adapt” to the new rules without jolts. And this is also because a substantial share of the debt is held by the Eurosystem and the European institutions and this reduces the exposure by debt in the event of a rapid shift in investor confidence.
“These factors contribute to supporting our ‘stable’ trend on the Italian rating because we believe that the risks for Italy’s sovereign ratings remain balanced for now” concluded the analysts of the agency. After S&P’s confirmation and Moody’s failure to update its opinion, for the debt Italian therefore another sign of relaxation arrives.
The needs of the states are increasing
Meanwhile, the OECD has predicted a generalized increase in the public needs of the States. According to the organization, after the decrease recorded in 2021 and 2022 due to the ‘retreat’ of the super-expansive policies implemented during the Covid explosion, the need will start to grow again this year.
The estimated increase is 6% for a total of 12.9 trillion dollars. We will be faced with “prospects of weak growth and rising interest rates”. Precisely for this reason, according to the OECD secretary general, Mathias Cormann, it is essential “to have credible institutional frameworks” and that the managers of the debt public “have the ability to adapt and react to changing market conditions”.