Source: Cinda Futures Author: Cinda Futures
The text of the research report
core logic: Short-term interest rate hike boots landed, Yunnan supply reduced support,Shanghai AluminumThe short-term period is too much, wait and see whether it can break through the rebound high in front; the fundamentals in the fourth quarter are expected to support and relatively resist the decline.
disk situation: Yesterday’s market opened up and then fell back. The domestic market has a net plus 3781 Masukura lots and a net short Masukura 1183 lots.
Macroscopically, the Fed’s September rate hike boots have limited boost to the market, mainly because the rate hike is fully in line with market expectations, and it has been reflected on the disk in the early stage.
Yesterday, the US dollar against the Japanese yen USD/JPY stood at the 145 mark, the first time since August 1998, with an intraday gain of 0.6%. The Japanese government intervenes in foreign exchange for the first time in 24 years, and if it takes subsequent measures to raise interest rates sharply, it will suppress the dollar.
Fundamentally, domestic supply conflicts continue. Yunnan may encounter the risk of insufficient water this winter and next spring. The production reduction rate of some aluminum plants in Yunnan has risen to 20%-30%. There is still the possibility of further expansion in the future. To 20%-30%, the scale of production reduction will reach 1-1.5 million tons.
While Weiqiao’s 1.93 million tons of production capacity has been determined to be transferred to Yunnan, it remains to be seen whether the subsequent production capacity will continue to expand. In the medium term, if the risk of power shortage continues, there may be a supply gap for electrolytic aluminum within the year. At present, the domestic support has become stronger, and the price difference between domestic and foreign prices has continued to narrow to around -156.37 yuan/ton. The import profit window is about to open.
domestic logic: Yunnan’s lack of water power reduces production, Inner Mongolia electricity price control, supply and cost two-way force, superimposed in the seasonal peak season of gold nine silver ten, the domestic fundamentals are prominent.
Since the beginning of this year, the export consumption of aluminum products has been very good. In August, the export of unwrought aluminum products increased by 10.2% year-on-year, and the export volume from January to August reached 4.701 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%. The output of aluminum products was 5.304 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, which was relatively stable.
foreign logic: Overseas supply and cost support have continued, and the current production has been reduced by 1.476 million tons, but we believe that if we do not continue to expand, the bullishness has almost fermented. The European winter is approaching, which may have another major impact on energy-intensive industries.
Spot transaction: According to Shanghai Metal Net, the holders reported premiums and discounts in early trading, and they were discounting about 50 yuan / ton to the 10 contract. The spot of aluminum ingots rose with the market, and the holders in the East China market quoted the average price of the online price ~ the average price of -10 yuan / ton and heard the transaction.
Yesterday, the enthusiasm of the large households to receive goods was average, and the receiving price in the East China market was about 18,660 yuan / ton. The overall transaction in the spot market improved slightly compared with the previous day.
Strategy advice: Short-term speculators operate in a range, and there are more in the week; pay attention to the internal and external profit opportunities of short-term Shanghai Aluminum and Duolun Aluminum.
focus point: The degree of overseas power shortage, domestic consumption, Yunnan hydropower.
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