(Original title: The external market is picking up and the Shanghai index regains 3,000 points. The oversold technology stocks in May are expected to lead the way)
This week, the broader market declined first and then rose. After the stock price bottomed out on Monday and Tuesday, it stabilized and rebounded from Wednesday to Friday. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.29% to close at 3047.06 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.27% to close at 11021.44 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.98% to close at 2319.14 points; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.07% to close at 4016.24 point. Looking forward to the May market, industry insiders believe that after the policy bottom is clear, the market bottom is also under construction. With the recovery of the external market, the performance of the broader market in May is expected to be better than that in April.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange regained 3,000 points
This week, the market as a whole showed a trend of first decline and then rise. On Monday and Tuesday, the stock index quickly bottomed out, and the Shanghai Composite Index hit a new low of 2863.65 points for the year on Wednesday. The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also hit new lows. However, since Wednesday, the acceptance of the market low has increased significantly. On Friday, the broader market rose sharply in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3,000-point mark; the ChiNext Index rose 4.11% on Friday.
From a monthly perspective, in April, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 6.31%, closing in negative territory for two consecutive months; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 9.05%, closing in negative territory for four consecutive months; the ChiNext Index fell by 12.80%, closing in negative territory for five consecutive months. Negative. It is not difficult to find that, dragged down by the continuous weakening of the ChiNext, the Shenzhen market is significantly weaker than the Shanghai market.
Judging from the performance of the GEM index constituent stocks in April, the top 20 heavyweight stocks fell by an average of 11.63%. Among them, the top five decliners were Sungrow, Zhifei Bio, Kangtai Bio, Pioneer Intelligence, and Defang Nano. The declines were 41.08%, 31.52%, 30.58%, 24.25%, and 22.30% respectively; it is worth noting that the largest heavyweight Ningde Times fell 20.10% in April. There are 5 GEM constituent stocks that rose by more than 10% in April, namely Xinye, Mango Supermedia, Aier Eye, Dean Diagnostics, and China Testing.
In April, the Shanghai Composite Index was relatively resilient, mainly due to the strength of Kweichow Moutai, which rose 6.36% against the market in April. In the first quarter of 2022, Kweichow Moutai’s revenue reached 28.860 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.35%. At the beginning of the year, the company launched a series of new wine products. Moutai 1935 successfully filled the gap in the price band of 1,000 yuan, as well as high-end new products such as Maotai wine treasures, while reducing low-end products such as princes. Institutions believe that the company’s good start in the first quarter laid the foundation for the good performance of the whole year.
The recovery of the external market is good for A shares
This week, with the recovery of the peripheral stock market, the low-level A-share market has increased significantly. On Thursday, the Dow rose 1.85% and the Nasdaq rose 3.06%. It is worth mentioning that the trend of Hong Kong stocks has strengthened significantly this week. The Hang Seng Index rose by more than 2% for the week, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose sharply by 9.96% on Friday, with a weekly increase of more than 11%. Industry insiders believe that due to the “May Day” holiday, the A-share market will not open until May 5. The Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on May 2 due to Labor Day. It is not ruled out that some funds may be deployed in Hong Kong stocks in advance during the A-share market break.
Since the beginning of this year, the tightening of global liquidity has accelerated. Following the Fed’s decision in March to raise interest rates by 25 basis points from a level close to zero, the Fed will likely raise interest rates by 50 bps at the upcoming May meeting on interest rates, and Said that a similar rate hike may be needed in the future to reduce inflation.
Industry insiders believe that, driven by the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes, U.S. bond yields have risen rapidly, and the yield curves of China and the U.S. have appeared “double inversion”: First, the U.S. bond yield curve has partially inverted, and some term interest rate spreads have turned negative. ; Second, the yield curve between the two countries has inverted on a large scale, and the 2-10-year mid-term U.S. bond spread quickly turned negative. Against this background, in March, the net outflow of foreign capital under the Mainland Stock Connect program was 46.1 billion yuan, and custody data showed that foreign capital sold a net 112.5 billion yuan of Chinese bonds. In April, the RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar, and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the U.S. dollar gradually approached the weak-side guarantee position, all indicating a certain scale of capital outflow in my country.
Oversold tech stocks are resilient
Looking forward to the market in May, industry insiders believe that after the policy bottom is clear, the market bottom is also under construction, and the performance of the broader market in May is expected to be better than that in April.
Mr. Chen, senior manager of Huaxin Securities, told the “Popular Securities News” reporter that although the decline of the stock index narrowed this week, the game characteristics of stock funds are still very obvious. When the broader market fell sharply, heavyweight stocks such as liquor, real estate, infrastructure, and coal were clearly defending the market. Once the index stabilized, a group of oversold subject stocks in the previous period are expected to rebound sharply. Investors can focus on oversold technology stocks in May. Opportunities .
Li Qiusuo, chief strategist of CICC, believes that from a historical point of view, the compensatory decline of strong sectors or strong stocks may be an important behavioral signal in the final stage of adjustment. On the whole, effective policy signals and fundamental signals of improvement in profit expectations are important conditions for the formation of a staged bottom, and signals at the valuation, capital and behavioral levels can play an auxiliary role in judgment. At present, the policy signals are clear and targeted. The support policies in monetary policy and real estate are more active than in the previous period. The control of the epidemic is also being adjusted dynamically. Regarding the issues of Chinese stocks and the platform economy, the recent financial committee meeting has also made positive decisions. respond. At present, the fundamental signal still needs to be improved. The large price increase squeezes the profits of the middle and lower reaches, the weak real estate boom drags down the demand of the housing industry chain, and the consumption is suppressed. It is yet to be clear that the inflection point will appear.
Reporter Tang Xiaofei