Never as in the case of the G7 under the Italian presidency, have the planned meetings been held in a context similar to the current one, con two conflicts – against Ukraine and in Israel and Palestine – and an extraordinary crisis like the one caused by Houthi armed attacks against transit ships in the Red Sea, to name just a few serious episodes that happen in Europe or in nearby areas. What will be the evolution of these serious events in June? It is to be hoped that at least a ceasefire will be reached, if not even the possibility of armistices. But will it be like this or is it a hope against hope?
The main G7 meeting will be held in Borgo Egnazia, in Puglia, from 13 to 15 June, shortly after the outcome of the European elections which, for Italy, will be held on 8 and 9 June, while at European level they could still take place between 6 and 9 June. This context cannot fail to influence the G7 meetings, which could also be held “in vitro”. Probably, in those days, we will continue to discuss the electoral outcomes and the possible formations of the new bodies of the Union. Without mentioning other international events, such as the campaign for the election of the President of the USA or the election of the President of Russia. It is estimated that almost half of the global population will go to the polls this year. In some respects, it may even be an advantage to have to hold forum meetings in the heat of impacting issues in a cheap body and, therefore, lead us to deal with tangible and looming realities.
The G7 under the Italian presidency should aspire to concreteness
The program of the entire G7 is ambitious. With it, the Italian presidency also plays a card for its own international credibility, but naturally the increase in expectations arising from the topics under discussion will then correspond to a rigorous evaluation of the results. It would already represent an important outcome to be able to conclude the June meeting if not with operational decisions – which would be an illusion – with at least commitments which, despite other numerous and difficult steps, are less distant from implementation than what usually happens in such bodies that end, willing to involuntarilylimiting their function to the substantial exchange of information.
Of course, one should not overlook the other meeting formats which will characterize the G7, starting with that of the Finance ministers, for the contributions they can offer in their areas of interest. In banking and financial matters, it would be important to evaluate how to connect the action of the seven with that of the main central banks, on the assumption of mutual autonomy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni underlined Italy’s position as a bridge between the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific, highlighting the issues of international cooperation and relations with developing countries, with emerging economies, especially with the Africa and, in this context, underlining the urgencies for migration policies.
Energy and climate change they cannot fail to have a central role in all meetings. But the themes of security, finance and development will also be highlighted. Preparation, as always, will also be decisive for the selection, in the numerous meetings, of priority themes. It is important, especially in the meeting of the Greats, to focus on the issues that deserve absolute priority. It must be taken into account that, as mentioned, the evolving context may require giving priority to new topics. The concreteness it should be one of the binding objectives.
The bottom lines are also no less important. Even with all the limitations of representativeness of the G7 compared to the G20, and even with the awareness of the difficulties of the project, also in order not to incur a mere effort of imagination, it would be an appreciable choice to start defining the lines of a new international order (a formula that is very often agitated, without ever having to deal with reality) or, at least, supporting multilateralism and introducing antidotes to closures that could occur (think of changes of direction in the USA following the presidential elections or the impacts of Chinese and relations with Russia).
An opportunity for renewal for international financial and economic institutions
Appreciable would also be a critical review of structure and action of international financial and economic institutions. Born in a distant and very different international context, they require a substantial institutional and organizational review. Following the current war events, in this phase of the life of the West (and not only) issues of great importance arise, such as the adequacy, concreteness, cogency of international and humanitarian law, as well as the branches connected to them, such as the law of navigation, maritime law and law of the sea. But the issue also arises of the level of adherence to the law itself and the adequacy of the set of courts with transnational jurisdiction.
Obviously, it is not imaginable that the G7 would address the merits of these complex issues, such as that of Africa’s debt moratorium, which calls for discussions and commitments on the debt forgiveness of poor countries on the occasion of the Jubilee of the Year 2000. However, it is not excessive to hope that the G7 will at least give a push to address these extraordinary and particularly complex issues, also due to the requests that come from the right need for global rules for the epochal phenomenon ofartificial intelligence.
The international picture is particularly complicated today, although the proximity between Russia and China and between Russia and Iran could be counterbalanced by an orientation towards a telephone exchange between Biden e Xi Jinping next March. Even if, for now, it is a hint and nothing more. We will have to see what the situation will be at the time of the most important meeting of the program, which is the meeting in June.
As mentioned, a constituent phase of a new international order is not realistic, but this does not mean that the primarily ideal push must be lowered. We expect, as stated, results not epochal but concrete, even if delimited. Therefore, in the preparation of the most important meetings, it would be a sign to also involve knowledge, specialisms and experiences outside of institutional channels from now on.