Original title: The latest housing price data in 70 cities across the country announced: only 9 new houses rose, and only 3 second-hand houses rose
Continuing the trend of cooling since July, the prices of new and second-hand houses nationwide continued to decline in November, various data on real estate development and investment continued to show an “inverted V” trend, and the national housing climate index further declined.
On December 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the residential sales price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities in November and the national real estate development investment data from January to November. In November, the price of new homes in only 9 cities across the country increased month-on-month, and the price of second-hand homes increased month-on-month in only 3 cities.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, told the reporter of “Daily Economic News” that according to simple arithmetic calculations, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities across the country rose by -0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year in November. The current month-on-month decline in the price index has lasted for 3 months, and the decline is expanding. This means that the real estate market has turned from “overheating” to “overcooling”, and it is expected that the recent housing purchase policy will be oriented towards easing.
Prices of new houses in only 9 cities increased month-on-month
According to Sheng Guoqing, the chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of new homes in first-tier cities remained flat month-on-month, while those in second-tier cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, and the rate of decline increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; third-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, the same rate as last month.
In terms of specific data, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, only 9 cities including Sanya, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai saw a slight increase in the price of new houses from the previous month. Among them, Sanya saw the highest increase of 0.7%, and the second place was Hangzhou 0.5%.
However, there are still 54 cities with a year-on-year increase, of which five cities including Chongqing, Yinchuan, Changsha, Xi’an, and Guangzhou have increased by more than 6%, while Dali and Luzhou have experienced significant year-on-year declines.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, believes: “The overall decline in housing prices in November. On the one hand, the current market transaction heat is still at the bottom of the adjustment period, and buyers have a strong voice; on the other hand, some banks have released mortgage loans towards the end of the year. Under this background, the supply side lowered the price in order to sell the houses as soon as possible before the end of the year.”
Second-hand housing prices in only 3 cities rose month-on-month
In November, the prices of second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell from a month-on-month period. Only Ganzhou, Haikou, and Tangshan rose slightly by 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively; in addition, 4 cities remained flat, and 63 cities fell.
Image source: CCTV FinanceIn terms of the distribution of fluctuations, the decline of second-hand housing prices in a few large and medium-sized cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing narrowed first. The cities where the decline continued to expand were dominated by weak second-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities.
Yan Yuejin said: “Compared with the data in October, at least the number of cities that have fallen has not expanded. From a specific city perspective, only 7 cities have not fallen, especially cities like Haikou and Sanya, which are affected by the lack of first-hand housing. Prices are prone to speculation. The increase in first-tier cities has not expanded, but has narrowed. Toward the end of the year, we must guard against second-hand housing speculation, especially in first-tier cities where the second-hand housing continued to fall, and the current transaction volume has bottomed out.”
Compared with the price trend of new houses, Yan Yuejin believes: “As far as the current situation is concerned, the decline of second-hand houses is greater than that of first-hand houses, especially when the credit policy is relaxed. Both the home buyers and the buyers showed a wait-and-see mood.”
Prevent “over-cold” interval
From January to November, the investment in real estate development nationwide was 137314 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. Among them, the residential investment was 10,358.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1%. The sales area of commercial housing was 1581.31 million square meters, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year; the sales of commercial housing was 16,166.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5%.
Yan Yuejin told reporters, “Real estate development investment is entering the “moderate” range from the “overheating” range. It is necessary to prevent entering the “overcooling” range (that is, less than 5%). In general, real estate development investment is a measure of real estate. The prosperity index is very good, and the data will be slightly sluggish in the short term, which is related to the lack of continuous improvement in the real estate sales environment.”
In the first 11 months, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 158131 million square meters, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year; the sales of commercial housing was 16,166.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5%. According to observations, the national commercial housing sales area and sales growth rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points from January to October, respectively. Although the decline has narrowed compared with previous months, the overall “inverted V” pattern has not changed.
At the same time, the area of land purchased by real estate development enterprises was 182.87 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%; the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 18,33.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%.
Chen Wenjing, deputy research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, analyzed: “Affected by the “two concentration” policy of land supply in key cities and the cooling of the land market in the second half of the year, the transaction volume of the national land market continued to decline from January to November, which continued to drag down new housing starts across the country. In addition, the pressure on the capital side of real estate companies has not been reduced recently. From January to November, the cumulative year-on-year decline in the area of new housing starts nationwide has further expanded to 9.1%. The area of new construction in a single month has decreased year-on-year for 8 consecutive months, of which November fell by 21.0% year-on-year. Affected by the marginal improvement in the financing environment for real estate companies, the rate of decline narrowed by 12.1 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of development investment, real estate development investment in November fell for three consecutive months year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed 1.1 percentage points from the previous month to 4.3%. At the beginning of December, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission proposed to “reasonably issue real estate development loans and M&A loans”. In the short term, as the market financing environment continues to improve, market activity in some cities has rebounded. Affected by the high base, the area of newly-started housing and development investment across the country may maintain a downward trend in a single month. It is expected that the new construction for the whole year will decrease year-on-year, and investment will maintain a medium-speed growth.”
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